Going to restart a thread that I cocked up, then delete the original

@LawrenceGilder has summarised today’s information and included legacy death data.. 28 day- 33/60 day- 44/ Legacy - no cut off-110

I have been looking back to March to see where we might be comparatively https://twitter.com/lawrencegilder/status/1309515503476584453

I’m not going to compare cases because by mid March virtually all the limited testing there was, was being devoted to hospital admission. May a more useful comparison.

But deaths in March- we saw less than 110 deaths in a day until 25th March (reported 26/3/20. 115 dead)

Of course we also know that death reporting was much more erratic in March and the ONS only started creating a line for COVID death late March. Also only hospital deaths were being reported by the DHSC acts.

Safe to assume it passed 110 sooner than 25/3/20

So what about hospitals?

Not only have hospital bed occupation (1615) in England doubled in 10-11 days but bed occupation in England now exceeds occupation reported on 20/3/20 (1541) just before lockdown.

Alarm even allowing for better reporting now.

I would hope that more extensive testing will mean that we do not get quite the same extraordinarily rapid tsunami we saw in March when it then more than tripled in a week.

Admissions (315 on 23rd Sept in England)have doubled in 10 days.

No data for the last two days. I shall wait with interest the trajectory.

Not much point comparing ventilation beds with March given hospitals are using CPAP far more now, and also have some treatment for the severely ill that may reduce time in ICU as well as deaths.

The ICU network reports will tell us more.

But occupation has c.doubled in 8 days

When looking at cases for exponential curve data remember they are reported on primarily by report date (6,874 today).

But when looking at report by specimen date we can see there is quite a processing and report lag. So we are looking behind the curve mostly.