A very interesting and balanced argument from an Irish perspective, well worth reading. I have some comments and will try to get them down later. https://twitter.com/keohanedan/status/1309492490324582400

1st comment: while @KeohaneDan fairly describes the Unionist position, he doesn’t give the satisfaction of bicommunal concerns the central emphasis it has in the GFA. As all too often, the GFA is described as if it was all about borders (which it barely mentions), not consent. /1

Entering into an Irish Protocol that is at best grudgingly acquiesced in by one of the two main communities is plain contrary to the whole thrust of the GFA and is predictably a source of instability. /2

2nd comment: @KeohaneDan describes two options in the event of a no-deal Brexit (UK observes or UK abandons the Irish Protocol). There is a third - and the only one that is remotely practical even if a trade deal is done: that the customs elements of the Protocol are fudged. /3

Just as the GFA depends for its success on a high level of ambiguity, so in practice NI’s continuing trade with both UK and Ireland requires turning lots of blind eyes in all circumstances. There will be those who ask how then can the “integrity” of the SM be “defended”? /4

But that of course is to misassess the risk. Granny’s illicit bottle of Bushmills is of no consequence. What Customs officers want to stop is fraud and threats to health on a commercial scale. This is not done at the border (or need not be). /5

Border checks are more about collecting statistics. Real Customs enforcement is intelligence-led and risk-assessed. A close working relationship between Irish and UK Customs is more important than any number of border checks. /6

This should not be a shocking thought in Brussels. The only basis on which they accepted, right at the outset, the idea of a special status for NI was that it was economically so small that the risk to the SM was manageable. /7

They have moved from that “risky” approach to one in which NI is to be hermetically sealed into the Customs Union, but without any consideration as to how that impacts on the GFA and communal stability. Time to back up. /end