Despite how rudely these points are made I think they're worth responding to as Mr. "MegaMind" references a popular view that need to be critically unpacked. Throughout his responses he cites positive reviews of Egypt's economy & econ reform

Thread on what's wrong with that view https://twitter.com/MegaMind27/status/1309278002338029568

Many defenders of govt point first to elevated levels of GDP growth in past few years. While an improvement, growth in proportion to population growth remains inadequate to overcome growing levels of poverty. Levels need to reach at least 7.5% to 8%. https://twitter.com/MegaMind27/status/1309279328816033792?s=20

Instead, poverty is actually rising while GDP grows. The same was observed throughout latter half of Mubarak's presidency. Not only is poverty rising as GDP rises, but private sector is contracting. Non-oil and gas PMIs were negative nearly every single month since IMF bailout

The oil & gas sector is the other sector seeing much of growth along with govt stimulus, but this sector is largely captured by state/regime in partnership with foreign companies while employing very few Egyptians. Tourism was doing well pre Covid but is always subject to shocks

This is central to the trouble. Much of the growth is captured by the regime, either through the state, or through its independent regime owned enterprises (ROEs). The private sector often must partner with or act as a subcontractor to ROEs in order to access new wealth.

Some foreign observers/officials who visit Egypt do report hearing positive reviews from the business community. That is related to the fact that it is dangerous to criticize the regime and the govt knows who they're meeting with. Businessmen & women are wisely extremely cautious

However in private there is much discontent over the security apparatus' agressive expansion of its business empire in which it eats market share, raises barriers to independent investment and competes without paying taxes, customs or being subject to onerous regulations

This contributes to a reluctance to invest. Moreover rising levels of poverty mean Egyptian consumer demand is depressed reducing incentives to invest further, as is regularly cited in PMI surveys. If the state is your customer, as is case with many key ROEs, this matters less

Finally, foreign fund managers aren't that interested in the mechanics of Egypt's markets. They're not investing in Egypt. They're investing in its debt. They want to make sure they'll get paid and much of their holdings is very short term to minimize their exposure to risk.

Their faith in Egypt is fickle. They invest while interest rates are high & prefer added security of an IMF program. When Covid struck & no IMF deal was in place over $14 billion in foreign capital exited Egypt in a little over a month. It started to return when the IMF returned

I am admittedly not a terribly optimistic person in general, but the rosy statements on Egypt's economy are often based on a partial focus on a very narrow set of variables with minimal regard for the health of the marketplace nevermind the wellbeing of the average Egyptian.

The rhetoric regularly calling for inclusive private sector led growth must be matched with policies that make such growth possible. So far that simply hasn't happened and Egyptians will suffer so long as that remains the case.