I know what the polls are saying, but I also know what they said last time too. I also know that when I drive around suburban MD I see almost no Biden signs, and when I drive in rural VA, I see wall-to-wall Trump signs.
Almost every single R-leaning friend who didn't vote for Trump last time is planning on voting for him this time, without any apprehension. Every single friend who voted for him last time is pulling the lever for him again, quite enthusiastically. Almost none say it publicly.
Perhaps the best representation of how poorly they campaigned was when HRC spent election night signing these covers. And up to the wire, Trump was campaigning in Wisconsin, etc (and was being called crazy to spend his time there!) https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/10/newsweek-recalls-125000-copies-of-its-souvenir-madam-president-i/
Y'all need more Aesop's Fables in your lives because 2016 and 2020 are 100% "Tortoise and the Hare."