The one area that incentives-based modelling of labour retention struggles with is "insider theory". Whilst furlough will have weakened this, it will still be an important determinant of retention even as the financial incentives from the UK government pull back in November /1

My take is that the analysis today risks understating the impact of yesterday's package. Yes JSS is markedly less generous than JRS - but the insider advantage/ #payasyougrow on BBL/CBILS & VAT cut/ forbearance all taken in the round is a considerable lean-in /2

An @OBR_UK assessment of costs & behavioural shifts from WEP would've been welcome. It's unlikely to be a 1:1 offset to economic impact of new restrictions - my analysis for London here: https://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/new-virus-curbs-will-deliver-15bn-hit-to-london-a4555211.html - but with 48hrs lead-in time was always likely to be holding plan /3