A (long) thread:

Scott Wiener’s bill #SB1120 – to end single family zoning in California – died on a technicality, but will most certainly be back next year, in some form.

It had the votes to pass, and without a lot of scrutiny. It needs some. https://www.latimes.com/homeless-housing/story/2020-09-01/california-assembly-sb-1120-duplexes
Bid to allow duplexes on most California lots dies after Assembly approval comes too late

The California Assembly passed a measure to allow duplexes on single family lots, but the legislative session ended before the Senate could vote.

https://www.latimes.com/homeless-housing/story/2020-09-01/california-assembly-sb-1120-duplexes
2. #SB1120, like Scott Wiener’s earlier #SB50, used framing meant to sound progressive and equitable – like promoting transit use, or ending structural segregation. That sounds good. https://twitter.com/Scott_Wiener/status/1126895891925782528
3. But the ideology here is Supply-Side Economics, dressed up with some new language and tone – that capitalism is a natural process, and if freed from the chains of regulation, will produce equitable outcomes. https://twitter.com/Scott_Wiener/status/1132319202289651712
4. The goal of #SB1120, and legislation like it:

- Deregulate real estate development

- Incentivize speculation
- Capitalists will flourish by producing lots of new housing
- Market saturation will make housing cheap and abundant
5. Deregulation is a word that needs to be used here honestly in discussing this.
6. ((((( sigh ))))) https://twitter.com/Scott_Wiener/status/1201259590421233664
7. The groups pushing zoning deregulation in CA sell it by saying that it will target rich areas, and address generations-old patterns of segregation.

It won’t.

This is like saying the flat income tax is equitable, or repealing estate taxes is about helping family farms.
7. The groups pushing zoning deregulation in CA sell it by saying that it will target rich areas, and address generations-old patterns of segregation. It won’t.This is like saying the flat income tax is equitable, or repealing estate taxes is about helping family farms.
7. The groups pushing zoning deregulation in CA sell it by saying that it will target rich areas, and address generations-old patterns of segregation. It won’t.This is like saying the flat income tax is equitable, or repealing estate taxes is about helping family farms.
8. Blanket deregulation of zoning is unlikely to have much impact on areas that are intentionally exclusive.

High resource areas have the opposite phenomenon:
- Mansionization
- Spec homes
- Combining units and lots
8. Blanket deregulation of zoning is unlikely to have much impact on areas that are intentionally exclusive.High resource areas have the opposite phenomenon: - Mansionization - Spec homes- Combining units and lots
8. Blanket deregulation of zoning is unlikely to have much impact on areas that are intentionally exclusive.High resource areas have the opposite phenomenon: - Mansionization - Spec homes- Combining units and lots
8. Blanket deregulation of zoning is unlikely to have much impact on areas that are intentionally exclusive.High resource areas have the opposite phenomenon: - Mansionization - Spec homes- Combining units and lots
8. Blanket deregulation of zoning is unlikely to have much impact on areas that are intentionally exclusive.High resource areas have the opposite phenomenon: - Mansionization - Spec homes- Combining units and lots
9. Like this. https://twitter.com/mayavada/status/1260352138904911872
10. Or This.

You can see a lot of this in San Francisco, where mansions were split into apartments in the 20th century, now being converted back to mansions.

This went from two units to a mansion with an ADU, unlikely to be used as such. https://twitter.com/mayavada/status/1302025000031907840
11. What zoning deregulation will primarily impact:
- Working class areas
- The pre-1950s inner ring, in close proximity to urban centers
- Areas that were affected by white flight, and became POC communities
- Areas already facing heavy gentrification pressure

This California.
11. What zoning deregulation will primarily impact:- Working class areas- The pre-1950s inner ring, in close proximity to urban centers- Areas that were affected by white flight, and became POC communities- Areas already facing heavy gentrification pressureThis California.
11. What zoning deregulation will primarily impact:- Working class areas- The pre-1950s inner ring, in close proximity to urban centers- Areas that were affected by white flight, and became POC communities- Areas already facing heavy gentrification pressureThis California.
11. What zoning deregulation will primarily impact:- Working class areas- The pre-1950s inner ring, in close proximity to urban centers- Areas that were affected by white flight, and became POC communities- Areas already facing heavy gentrification pressureThis California.
11. What zoning deregulation will primarily impact:- Working class areas- The pre-1950s inner ring, in close proximity to urban centers- Areas that were affected by white flight, and became POC communities- Areas already facing heavy gentrification pressureThis California.
12. A good indicator of areas that would be targets of speculation after blanket deregulation of zoning in California; neighborhoods with “Cash for Houses” signs all over.

https://www.kcrw.com/news/shows/press-play-with-madeleine-brand/what-are-all-those-cash-for-houses-signs
13. YIMBY groups promoting #SB1120 made cute graphics with smiling houses, and claims that it would prevent McMansions (how?) and empower homeowners to become mini developers, and "tap into equity."

Much more likely that it would make developer flips more lucrative.
14. In areas like Seattle's Ballard, where there is a construction boom of converting single homes to multi-units, they are all done by developers, and each of the units they produce is higher priced than the original house. https://twitter.com/mayavada/status/1298721142362923008
15. The groups that were promoting #SB1120 frequently use material from UC Berkeley’s Othering and Belonging institute. Let’s look at it. https://news.berkeley.edu/2020/09/10/why-bay-area-neighborhoods-are-still-racially-segregated/
Why Bay Area neighborhoods are still racially segregated

UC Berkeley researcher advocates for multi-unit housing as a way to combat racial segregation

https://news.berkeley.edu/2020/09/10/why-bay-area-neighborhoods-are-still-racially-segregated/
16. You can see in this Othering and Belonging Institute graphic, the areas that will be targeted for speculative development and displacement – by comparing their Bay Area zoning map with ones of low income areas and gentrification/displacement.
16. You can see in this Othering and Belonging Institute graphic, the areas that will be targeted for speculative development and displacement – by comparing their Bay Area zoning map with ones of low income areas and gentrification/displacement.
16. You can see in this Othering and Belonging Institute graphic, the areas that will be targeted for speculative development and displacement – by comparing their Bay Area zoning map with ones of low income areas and gentrification/displacement.
16. You can see in this Othering and Belonging Institute graphic, the areas that will be targeted for speculative development and displacement – by comparing their Bay Area zoning map with ones of low income areas and gentrification/displacement.
17. If you remove the high opportunity areas from the single family zoning map, you can start to see the areas that will be targeted for speculation.

These are areas below 80% AMI zoned SFR.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/View/index.html?appid=9d9e4390f4384a0cb90d106dcd763ca2&extent=-123.8599,37.3776,-121.2231,38.4072
17. If you remove the high opportunity areas from the single family zoning map, you can start to see the areas that will be targeted for speculation. These are areas below 80% AMI zoned SFR. https://www.arcgis.com/apps/View/index.html?appid=9d9e4390f4384a0cb90d106dcd763ca2&extent=-123.8599,37.3776,-121.2231,38.4072
17. If you remove the high opportunity areas from the single family zoning map, you can start to see the areas that will be targeted for speculation. These are areas below 80% AMI zoned SFR. https://www.arcgis.com/apps/View/index.html?appid=9d9e4390f4384a0cb90d106dcd763ca2&extent=-123.8599,37.3776,-121.2231,38.4072
18. Compare the areas that would be deregulated under #SB1120 with ones most threatened with gentrification in the Urban Displacement Project’s map.

See any correlation?

https://www.urbandisplacement.org/map/sf 
18. Compare the areas that would be deregulated under #SB1120 with ones most threatened with gentrification in the Urban Displacement Project’s map. See any correlation? https://www.urbandisplacement.org/map/sf 
18. Compare the areas that would be deregulated under #SB1120 with ones most threatened with gentrification in the Urban Displacement Project’s map. See any correlation? https://www.urbandisplacement.org/map/sf 
19. While It’s true that a lot more SFR-zoned areas are high-income and white, to say that deregulation would affect them equally is disingenuous.

There are plenty of Bay Area neighborhoods that would open up to development, strategically close to $$$$$.
19. While It’s true that a lot more SFR-zoned areas are high-income and white, to say that deregulation would affect them equally is disingenuous.There are plenty of Bay Area neighborhoods that would open up to development, strategically close to $$$$$.
19. While It’s true that a lot more SFR-zoned areas are high-income and white, to say that deregulation would affect them equally is disingenuous.There are plenty of Bay Area neighborhoods that would open up to development, strategically close to $$$$$.
19. While It’s true that a lot more SFR-zoned areas are high-income and white, to say that deregulation would affect them equally is disingenuous.There are plenty of Bay Area neighborhoods that would open up to development, strategically close to $$$$$.
20. The #SB1120 impact on Los Angeles County.

LA has a LOT of single family zoning, but similar dynamic to the Bay Area.

Zoning map from Property Shark
https://www.propertyshark.com/mason/ca/Los-Angeles-County/Maps?map=la&x=0.6541666666666667&y=0.6204166666666666&zoom=0&basemap=zoningisdata&star=1&tab=themes&ll=34.1074575257951,-118.087273561788

Median Income from the Urban Displacement Project.
https://www.urbandisplacement.org/map/socal# 
20. The #SB1120 impact on Los Angeles County.LA has a LOT of single family zoning, but similar dynamic to the Bay Area.Zoning map from Property Shark https://www.propertyshark.com/mason/ca/Los-Angeles-County/Maps?map=la&x=0.6541666666666667&y=0.6204166666666666&zoom=0&basemap=zoningisdata&star=1&tab=themes&ll=34.1074575257951,-118.087273561788Median Income from the Urban Displacement Project. https://www.urbandisplacement.org/map/socal# 
20. The #SB1120 impact on Los Angeles County.LA has a LOT of single family zoning, but similar dynamic to the Bay Area.Zoning map from Property Shark https://www.propertyshark.com/mason/ca/Los-Angeles-County/Maps?map=la&x=0.6541666666666667&y=0.6204166666666666&zoom=0&basemap=zoningisdata&star=1&tab=themes&ll=34.1074575257951,-118.087273561788Median Income from the Urban Displacement Project. https://www.urbandisplacement.org/map/socal# 
21. These houses in Los Angeles are probably not going to be splitting lots and adding units. Buying up adjacent lots and assembling compounds is more likely.

https://www.latimes.com/business/real-estate/story/2020-08-24/beverly-hills-compound-seeks-60-million
21. These houses in Los Angeles are probably not going to be splitting lots and adding units. Buying up adjacent lots and assembling compounds is more likely. https://www.latimes.com/business/real-estate/story/2020-08-24/beverly-hills-compound-seeks-60-million
21. These houses in Los Angeles are probably not going to be splitting lots and adding units. Buying up adjacent lots and assembling compounds is more likely. https://www.latimes.com/business/real-estate/story/2020-08-24/beverly-hills-compound-seeks-60-million
21. These houses in Los Angeles are probably not going to be splitting lots and adding units. Buying up adjacent lots and assembling compounds is more likely. https://www.latimes.com/business/real-estate/story/2020-08-24/beverly-hills-compound-seeks-60-million
22. This @latimes article about combining lots in rich areas of Los Angeles is from 2010, but not much has changed, except for the rich getting even richer, and the high end of LA real estate getting that much more expensive.

https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2010-jun-12-la-fi-compounds-20100613-story.html
23. Lower-income areas in Los Angeles county, zoned single-family, that would be subject to housing deregulation under #SB1120.

1. Map 1. Low-income areas
2. Map 2. Low-mid income areas

(Property Shark, Urban Displacement Project)
23. Lower-income areas in Los Angeles county, zoned single-family, that would be subject to housing deregulation under #SB1120.1. Map 1. Low-income areas2. Map 2. Low-mid income areas (Property Shark, Urban Displacement Project)
23. Lower-income areas in Los Angeles county, zoned single-family, that would be subject to housing deregulation under #SB1120.1. Map 1. Low-income areas2. Map 2. Low-mid income areas (Property Shark, Urban Displacement Project)
24. Orange County.

OC has primarily single family zoning. Yellow on the map here.


https://www.propertyshark.com/mason/ca/Orange-County/Maps
25. Low-income OC areas (orange on the first map, magenta on the second) with single-family zoning. These areas are primarily Latino and Asian, and all in North OC.


Orange County income demographics:
https://www.ocgov.com/civicax/filebank/blobdload.aspx?BlobID=77937
25. Low-income OC areas (orange on the first map, magenta on the second) with single-family zoning. These areas are primarily Latino and Asian, and all in North OC.
Orange County income demographics: https://www.ocgov.com/civicax/filebank/blobdload.aspx?BlobID=77937
25. Low-income OC areas (orange on the first map, magenta on the second) with single-family zoning. These areas are primarily Latino and Asian, and all in North OC.
Orange County income demographics: https://www.ocgov.com/civicax/filebank/blobdload.aspx?BlobID=77937
25. Low-income OC areas (orange on the first map, magenta on the second) with single-family zoning. These areas are primarily Latino and Asian, and all in North OC.
Orange County income demographics: https://www.ocgov.com/civicax/filebank/blobdload.aspx?BlobID=77937
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