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Club PB Baselines: A Thread
Having benefitted from other ppl's analysis I thought it time to share my own.
This thread shares my analysis of club data from the 19/20 season to determine which clubs deliver the highest PB baseline across PB leagues.
#footballindex
#ficommunity
Having benefitted from other ppl's analysis I thought it time to share my own.
This thread shares my analysis of club data from the 19/20 season to determine which clubs deliver the highest PB baseline across PB leagues.
#footballindex
#ficommunity
Context: I don't have great player knowledge as my football consumption has dwindled into my 30s, but I've long had an interest in tactics and previously blogged on tactical analysis.
This is an attempt to remove the individual and consider tactical systems as a source of PB.
This is an attempt to remove the individual and consider tactical systems as a source of PB.
To achieve this I've taken 19/20 PB league club data for the baseline actions (exc. gls/ass, win/losses) included in PB scoring, averaged over 90mins.
This is averaged out for outfield players to suggest a 90min PB baseline.
GKs are excluded due to their different PB matrix.
This is averaged out for outfield players to suggest a 90min PB baseline.
GKs are excluded due to their different PB matrix.
The methodology isn't without limitations, including:
Aggregation is distorted by red cards
Ignores changing match scenarios
Assumptions on GK contribution
Nevertheless I still believe it to be sufficiently accurate as to be useful.
Aggregation is distorted by red cardsIgnores changing match scenariosAssumptions on GK contributionNevertheless I still believe it to be sufficiently accurate as to be useful.
The tables below show the outfield PB baseline for each club in the PB leagues (19/20).
Also provided is an estimated PB average for each position inclusive of goals/assists, clean sheets and win/losses. This diverges from the baseline for teams that score/concede more.
This data is caveated by further assumptions made based on origin of goals/assists by position.
This data is caveated by further assumptions made based on origin of goals/assists by position.
The clubs that generate the highest PB baselines are unsurprising - Man City, PSG, Bayern.
These clubs play possession-based yet penetrative football, and all are proactive without the ball.
All three teams provide an average of 110+, compared to a 98 club average of 78.5.
These clubs play possession-based yet penetrative football, and all are proactive without the ball.
All three teams provide an average of 110+, compared to a 98 club average of 78.5.
However the more interesting data lies in finding clubs that outperform or underperform their reputation or on-pitch performance.
Some standout results (to me anyway):
#4 Chelsea (104.0)
#6 Napoli (101.7)
#13 Leicester (93.5)
#15 Lyon (92.5)
#24 Man U (86.9)
#32 Arsenal (81.3)
Some standout results (to me anyway):
#4 Chelsea (104.0)
#6 Napoli (101.7)
#13 Leicester (93.5)
#15 Lyon (92.5)
#24 Man U (86.9)
#32 Arsenal (81.3)
I use this data to inform my opinion on how transfers affect PB potential, and which clubs' players may be under/overvalued.
I'm also looking at aggregating positional averages to determine the most valuable positions by club (eg: FB for Leicester).
This will follow in time...
I'm also looking at aggregating positional averages to determine the most valuable positions by club (eg: FB for Leicester).
This will follow in time...
As always, no data should be relied on 100% to form an opinion, but it may offer a helpful perspective.
If you would like the xlsx DM me your email.
I'll now go back to leaching off of others much smarter than me...
End of thread
If you would like the xlsx DM me your email.
I'll now go back to leaching off of others much smarter than me...
End of thread
