Thought today re: @RadioFreeTom, Trump not accepting a "peaceful transition" and how it my affect voting patterns. 1st argument is that it will galvanize Dems who now want to win in a landslide. Conversely talk of votes not being counting may cause people to stay home. But... 1/x

But here is my bigger concern. A contested election where Trump takes power he hasn't "earned" is both a terrible outcome AND the most "interesting" and "unusual" outcome. For all the people sitting at home "bored", interesting may be what they are hoping for... 2/x

The last six months has shown that people do dumb things when they are bored. People buy stock in bankrupt Hertz. People expose themselves to a lethal virus to "stick it to the other side". Statues are toppled. It is like a LARP for many people. 3/x

The media seems almost gleeful at the idea of a "civil war" where their preconceived notions of how terrible the other side is will be proven true. 5% of people in market research consistently tell researchers that reptile aliens control the world. They want to cause chaos 4/x

If there is a chance of "civil war" or contested election where crazy things happen - states overruling electors, judges deciding the outcome, presidency undecided in February - that is legitimately the most "interesting" thing could happen in 2020 (saying a lot!) 5/x

There is a significant number of people that "interesting" is the driving force. They may not say it out loud, but they get excited about the idea of something interesting happening in their lives - and this could be it. An individual vote doesn't matter much anyway... 6/x

...so why not cast it in the direction that makes things marginally more likely to be interesting? No voter will be blamed for the outcome. So why not? Nothing seems real anymore anyway... Actions are so divorced from consequences... 7/x

. @ScottAdamsSays throws a lot against the wall, but four years ago he talked about how people like "stories" and Trump had crafted an incredible "comeback story". Now we have a situation where "chaos" is the story. Will people vote for "chaos"? At least some people will 8/x

What I am not sure about is what to do about this? We can't eliminate the "reptile rulers" answers from market research no matter how hard we try. When the parties have floor support of 48% each, and 5% are just looking for trouble... 9/x

...It feels like the side that promises more trouble, chaos, excitement and "interestingness" has a real edge.

Look a the historical winners from this perspective: 10/x

Trump was clearly more "interesting" a result than Clinton
Obama - first black president - was by far the most interesting choice
Bush - as the son of a recent president, it made a far more interesting story than Gore or Kerry
Clinton played the saxophone on late night TV... 11/x

Bush senior I am less clear on, but Reagan was a famous actor...

I expect I would still bet that Biden takes this, but I worry yesterday's press conference may have increased Trump's odds with his new appeal to "Chaos monkeys"... 12/12