https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🗣️" title="Silhouette eines sprechenden Kopfes" aria-label="Emoji: Silhouette eines sprechenden Kopfes">“Pick Salah at home and Mane away”

This statement seems to have become common consensus around large parts of FPL Twitter

Looking into the stats I found that there is no truth to this statement at all.

I wrote a short [THREAD] to explain
This theory seemingly originates from looking at goals scored at Anfield last PL season (19/20)

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat"> Salah 15 G
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat"> Mane 11 G

By looking at these stats Salah seems like the superior player at home
Similarly, Mane looks like the best pick away from home
last PL season (19/20)

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat"> Salah 4 G
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat"> Mane 7 G

And by that a theory is born

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🗣️" title="Silhouette eines sprechenden Kopfes" aria-label="Emoji: Silhouette eines sprechenden Kopfes">“Pick Salah at home and Mane away”
Then 20/21 opens with the following results

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat"> GW 1 LEEDS (H) Salah score 3 goals
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat"> GW 2 CHE (A): Mane score 2 goals

Perfectly in line with our theory.
The 19/20 pattern seems to predict this seasons outcome!
Let us rewind back one year and look at the 18/19 PL season.

How well did the Salah and Mane& #39;s home/away record in 18/19 predict the subsequent season?
PL 2018/19 goals scored:

Away
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat"> Salah 9 G
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat"> Mane 4 G

Home
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat"> Salah 13 G
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat"> Mane 18 G

Mane actually scored 82% of his goals at home in 18/19!https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🤷" title="Person shrugging" aria-label="Emoji: Person shrugging">
If we were to make a theory before the 19/20 season it would’ve been:

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🗣️" title="Silhouette eines sprechenden Kopfes" aria-label="Emoji: Silhouette eines sprechenden Kopfes"> “Pick Salah away and Mane at home”

Following this theory would be ill advised. You would end up with 15 goals in total, less than if you had just stuck with either one of them.
This doesn& #39;t bode well for our original theory

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat"> Why this difference from one season to another?
Did something change tactically that could cause this?

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat"> Maybe 18/19 failed to predict 19/20 because Klopp changed tactics to accommodate Manes strengths away from home?
Let& #39;s look at the timing of the away goals during the 19/20 season

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat"> Mane scored 4 goals in the first 7 games
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat"> Over the next 12 games Salah outscored Mane

Any tactical change was only effective in the first 7 games
Let& #39;s look at the timing of the away goals during the 19/20 seasonhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable= Mane scored 4 goals in the first 7 gameshttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat"> Over the next 12 games Salah outscored ManeAny tactical change was only effective in the first 7 games" title="Let& #39;s look at the timing of the away goals during the 19/20 seasonhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat"> Mane scored 4 goals in the first 7 gameshttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat"> Over the next 12 games Salah outscored ManeAny tactical change was only effective in the first 7 games" class="img-responsive" style="max-width:100%;"/>
A tactical change benefitting Mane should also be noticed in the expected stats for 19/20 (xG per 90)

Away
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat"> Salah: 0.57 xG
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat"> Mane: 0.35 xG

Turns out Salah actually performed better than Mane away from home!
This clearly demonstrate the dangers of looking at patterns emerging in small samples.

Looking at single season away/home performance looks to be a really bad idea.

When we see theories like this happen, we should always be critical and ask questions.
Then who is the best home/away player out of Salah and Mane?

Let’s increase the sample size and take a look at the averages over two years (18/19 and 19/20 seasons combined)

Since we are looking for Fantasy potential, let& #39;s add assists by looking at Goal Involvements (GI)
18/19 and 19/20 combined (GI per 90)

Home
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat"> Salah 1.02 GI
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat"> Mane 0.95 GI

Away
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat"> Salah 0.69 GI
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat"> Mane 0.50 GI

Salah has a small edge at home, and even more so away.

Now let us check how the expected stats line up with the output
18/19 and 19/20 combined (xGI per 90)

Home
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat"> Salah 0.87 xGI
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat"> Mane 0.74 xGI

Away
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat"> Salah 0.72 xGI
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat"> Mane 0.52 xGI

Both players outscored their xG at home.
Salah performed better than Mane both home and away.
This makes sense as Salah outperformed Mane in general (disregarding home/away).

18/19 and 19/20 combined

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat"> Salah 0.80 xGI
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat"> Mane 0.64 xGI

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat"> Salah 0.87 GI
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat"> Mane 0.74 GI
Both players perform better at Anfield than on the road

18/19 and 19/20 combined

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat"> Salah had 60% of his GI’s at home
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat"> Mane had 66% of hi GI’s at home

This is likely correlated to Liverpool scoring 60% of their goals at home in the same period
CONCLUSION

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat"> The “Pick Salah at home and Mane away” theory is false

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat"> Neither player performs markedly better at home/away than the other

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat"> Both players align their home goals percentage to that of the team
If you liked this thread, you might also like the piece I wrote earlier this week: https://twitter.com/russpuckney/status/1308488258914004994?s=20">https://twitter.com/russpuckn...
Source: http://FBref.com"> http://FBref.com 
Football Statistics and History | FBref.com

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