Does economic recovery hinge on controlling Covid-19?

For a while, that appeared to be the case. But now the recovery is happening faster in places like Texas, Florida, Arizona and Georgia –– states that did a poor job of containing the virus this summer https://trib.al/ZUGloSG ">https://trib.al/ZUGloSG&q...

As we await a vaccine, we should expect better virus control to improve economic fortunes.

But we should also expect states that rely on logistics, manufacturing and construction to outperform service economies, no matter what their health performance is https://trib.al/ZUGloSG ">https://trib.al/ZUGloSG&q...

The best way to see this is to compare the unemployment rates of states that have done some of the best and worst jobs of containing the spread of the virus over the past couple of months https://trib.al/ZUGloSG ">https://trib.al/ZUGloSG&q...

States in the Northeast have consistently done the best job of containing the virus. Yet of the 10 states with unemployment north of 10% in August, half are in the Northeast —

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="➡️" title="Pfeil nach rechts" aria-label="Emoji: Pfeil nach rechts">Massachusetts
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="➡️" title="Pfeil nach rechts" aria-label="Emoji: Pfeil nach rechts">New Jersey
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="➡️" title="Pfeil nach rechts" aria-label="Emoji: Pfeil nach rechts">New York
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="➡️" title="Pfeil nach rechts" aria-label="Emoji: Pfeil nach rechts">Pennsylvania
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="➡️" title="Pfeil nach rechts" aria-label="Emoji: Pfeil nach rechts">Rhode Island
https://trib.al/ZUGloSG ">https://trib.al/ZUGloSG&q...

States in the Sun Belt did a poorer job of containing the virus.

Despite experiencing a surge in cases in June and July, the August unemployment rate was only 5.9% in Arizona, 7.4% in Florida, 5.6% in Georgia, and 6.8% in Texas https://trib.al/ZUGloSG ">https://trib.al/ZUGloSG&q...

How could this be? When looking at four of the other states with unemployment rates over 10% in August, there’s a mixed record on virus containment —

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="➡️" title="Pfeil nach rechts" aria-label="Emoji: Pfeil nach rechts">California
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="➡️" title="Pfeil nach rechts" aria-label="Emoji: Pfeil nach rechts">Hawaii
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="➡️" title="Pfeil nach rechts" aria-label="Emoji: Pfeil nach rechts">Illinois
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="➡️" title="Pfeil nach rechts" aria-label="Emoji: Pfeil nach rechts">Nevada https://trib.al/ZUGloSG ">https://trib.al/ZUGloSG&q...

What do they have in common? Tourist destinations reliant on air travel:

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🎢" title="Achterbahn" aria-label="Emoji: Achterbahn">The theme parks of California
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🏖️" title="Strand mit Sonnenschirm" aria-label="Emoji: Strand mit Sonnenschirm">The beaches of Hawaii
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🎰" title="Spielautomat" aria-label="Emoji: Spielautomat">The casinos of Las Vegas
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🏙️" title="Stadtbild" aria-label="Emoji: Stadtbild">The major city of Chicago
https://trib.al/ZUGloSG ">https://trib.al/ZUGloSG&q...

The recovery patterns we’ve seen nationally are playing out between different states and communities.

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🏠" title="Haus" aria-label="Emoji: Haus">The economies of Arizona and Texas, for example, have gotten a boost from housing construction, which has been among the first industries to recover https://trib.al/ZUGloSG ">https://trib.al/ZUGloSG&q...

The pandemic boom in e-commerce has been good news not only for companies such as Amazon and Shopify, but also for workers and communities.

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🚚" title="Lieferwagen" aria-label="Emoji: Lieferwagen">Driving jobs and loading and stocking jobs have actually shown year-over-year growth in help-wanted ads https://trib.al/ZUGloSG ">https://trib.al/ZUGloSG&q...

Meanwhile, factory activity has improved lately as companies have sold down their inventories, creating shortages.

Supply chains still have problems, but this trend is lifting the fortunes of communities tied to the production of goods https://trib.al/ZUGloSG ">https://trib.al/ZUGloSG&q...

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="✈️" title="Flugzeug" aria-label="Emoji: Flugzeug">On the other hand, air travel in the U.S. is still only at 30% of normal levels.

Business travel and major conferences remain dormant. No city or state will completely get back to normal until there& #39;s a vaccine https://trib.al/ZUGloSG ">https://trib.al/ZUGloSG&q...

While economies in the Northeast and California may remain in a depression well into 2021, other parts of the country are transitioning into more of a modest recession.

Geography has become just one more way in which we& #39;re experiencing a K-shaped recovery https://trib.al/ZUGloSG ">https://trib.al/ZUGloSG&q...