How would Amy Coney Barrett rule on guns? The evidence suggests she has a very expansive view of gun rights, likely even broader than Justice Scalia. She would likely vote to strike down numerous gun laws, incl. red flag laws that have relatively bipartisan support. (Thread)

Barrett has one major opinion on the Second Amendment, her dissent in Kanter v. Barr. That case upheld a blanket ban on felons possessing firearms. Barrett argued that ban was overbroad and unconstitutional. Her opinion offers a window into how she would approach 2A questions. /2

Numerous courts have upheld bans on felons possessing firearms; the issue has been very frequently litigated. Barrett is one of only a handful of judges to rule against the ban. Even Scalia said nothing in Heller was intended to call into question bans on felons having guns. /3

Personally, I agree with Barrett and have argued that blanket bans on firearm possession by felons goes too far. Some felonies do not suggest violent tendencies (think of Martha Stewart), and the interest in public safety is not advanced by denying those people their rights. /4

Nonetheless, Barrett's views on felon possession bans put her well outside the mainstream of judges who've considered the issue. /5

She is likely to be more hostile to gun control than even Scalia was. Whereas Scalia suggested felon possession bans were likely constitutional in Heller, Barrett voted to allow at least some felons to have access to guns. /6

Barrett would also seem likely to vote to strike down as unconstitutional innovative gun reforms, like red flag laws. This is because, in her Kanter dissent, she suggests that only those gun laws that have a historical pedigree are constitutionally permissible. /7

There is a significant debate among federal judges and law professors over how one goes about deciding 2A cases. The federal courts have generally applied a form of intermediate scrutiny to gun laws. Barrett disagrees -- and says history and tradition should control. /8

Those gun laws that have long been on our statute books are within the power of government to enact. But laws without such a historical pedigree are suspect in Barrett's view. /9

Requiring gun laws to have a historical pedigree, however, would prevent the people from enacting new and innovative reforms to solve modern-day problems (such as mass shootings). Red flags would be a perfect example. /10

There is no history and tradition of red flag laws. So Barrett would presumably vote to strike down these innovative laws, despite their relatively bipartisan support and potential to advance public safety. /11

That red flag laws might reduce gun violence and make the public safer would likely be irrelevant under Barrett's history and tradition analysis, which rejects means/ends scrutiny. /12

Barrett also has a very narrow view of what counts as the relevant history to consider in gun cases. In the felon possession ban case, Barrett disregarded a half-century of blanket bans on felons having guns. So are all other "recent" gun restrictions unconstitutional too? /13

Laws prohibiting mentally ill people from possessing guns are "younger" than blanket bans on felons possessing firearms. If history and traditional alone controls, this ban too would likely be invalid in Barrett's view. /14

Barrett's history and tradition analysis would call into question current gun laws that are widely accepted, frequently enacted, and consistently upheld by courts (like the felon possession law). /15

Barrett's history and tradition analysis could be used to call into question virtually the entirety of the gun safety movement's agenda: bans on assault rifles, bans on high-capacity magazines, and even universal background checks. /16

Finally, Barrett would likely lead the Supreme Court taking more Second Amendment cases. The Court has tended to shy away since the Heller case. This past spring declined to hear a number of viable 2A cases, apparently because there weren't 5 justices in support. /17

It only takes 4 justices to grant a case but apparently Thomas, Alito, Kavanaugh & Gorsuch, who've each said the Court should take more 2A cases, didn't believe they could count on Roberts to side with them on the merits. Barrett would make Roberts's vote irrelevant. /18

All told, Amy Coney Barrett is likely to have a huge impact on America's gun policy if she is appointed to the Supreme Court.