So ONS weekly surveillance study is out tomorrow.

To go all Jeremy Clarkson on you “here’s what I think”

Data collected from c 11-18th sept (so last week). Due lag that means it to today’s admissions.

Current admissions for last two days are c 270. (1/4)

So assuming a 3% infection to admission rate.

My prediction is ONS tomorrow will say c9500-10000 infections.

90,500 infected with #covid19 0.165 of the community population.

That means weekly growth of c50% or a doubling of every 10 days. (2/4)

Projecting forward to today *if that rate continues* that means in England currently daily infection is 14250 per day.

Sounds scary but this is assuming none of the rule of six or other measures make no difference to growth rate. (3/4)

To compare to March. Doubling time was 3 days. This is currently 10 days so 3x slower. This makes a big difference. It also isn’t doubling every 8 days!

It still important to follow guidance etc but we are not in the place we were in March.

Let’s see what ONS says tomorrow.

As an appendix to this thread.

Here’s the data on England admissions.

ONS confirming what admissions are saying,the doubling time is lengthening.

It was 8 days last week,but has changed a bit of last 7 days.

Disclaimer: I’m not a data guy. I just like to push buttons