Thinking out loud here - do you bet on a pivot?

Every seed stage investor says that most of their consideration is the team. They also all say that most early stage ideas change. Pivots are very common.

And so, the question is - do you invest in a company when you don't have high conviction around the idea because you love the team? If you believe that teams are all that matter, then the answer is probably yes. Join them in the journey to learn, explore, and potentially pivot.

One of our most valuable portfolio companies was the result of a complete pivot. We backed the team, and they found their way. There was some Founder/Market fit, but what they pivoted to was pretty different from where they started.

But I also believe that ideas and market selection really matters. Even a number of our 10-year overnight successes were only a few degrees off from the founders' original intention.

So, do you back a founder you believe in even if you are unsure of the idea? Or do you wait for both a founder and idea you believe in, knowing that you will miss or pay up for some companies that pivoted to success? This to me is the hardest question in pre-PMF investing.

My POV has evolved. Here's my current thinking.

Some founding teams are heat seeking missiles (to steal a phrase from @joshk) They move and experiment fast to find something that works. In those cases, back the founder even if the idea seems off.

But other founders have different strengths, and being a heat-seeking missile isn't their super power. In those cases, think twice. Also, the further you get from founder/market fit, the more I'd hold off.

Also, I just can't be as strong of an investor and partner if I don't have full conviction in the idea. Even knowing that things may change, I want to feel like I'm ready to pitch my heart out for the company in speaking to coinvestors, potential recruits, customers, etc.

So, that's what I think. But curious if others feel differently. Please reply to this thread or fill out the poll:

How often would you back a founder you love pursuing an idea you think is "meh"