1. Let's talk about Ohio, the one-time bellwether state that took a hard shift to the right in 2016. I wrote about the state this morning: https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/states-of-play-ohio/

2. Why did Ohio shift to the right in 2016? Basic demographic features. Ohio is whiter than the nation and has a larger-than-average white w/o a college degree bloc. They moved hard to Trump. Clinton also did no better w/ college whites in Ohio than Obama did in 2012

3. That latter observation does suggest the possibility of an untapped growth potential for Biden in the state. In other words, maybe there is a white college realignment looming in Ohio that could somewhat counterbalance the white non-college realignment that just happened

4. However, Biden can't win the state on white college improvement alone. Trump did win the state by 8 points, after all. And there are roughly double the number of white non-college voters in OH as there are white college

5. I am also skeptical that Biden can claw back a significant share of the vote in the Appalachian part of the state. Maybe he does a bit better than Clinton, but Trump seems like a great fit for that region. OH-6 in Appalachia shifted further right than any other district

6. In fact, I wonder whether Trump's margins in eastern Ohio could get even better. Does OH-6 get even redder? Does Trump flip Mahoning Co. (Youngstown) after almost grabbing it in 2016? If so, game over for Biden, I'd think

7. That said, informed observers on both sides don't seem to think Trump will run ahead of 2016 in eastern Ohio. And there are many who believe that Trump's suburban numbers are way worse than 2016

8. As a loose guide to the state, I cut it into two - west of I-71 and east of it. I personally think Biden's growth potential is better west of it than east. The 2018 results may provide some clues https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/states-of-play-ohio/

9. My colleague @JMilesColeman made a great map for me - recent Ohio elections by CD. Those districts that were blue for Brown but red in the other three elections merit close watching https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/states-of-play-ohio/

10. perhaps a path to victory for Biden would be running like Brown west of 71 and like Cordray east of 71. Neither of those goals is easy, in my opinion, which is why I think Trump is still favored in OH. But I do think the state will be closer https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/states-of-play-ohio/