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Watching the @USIP event with @US4AfghanPeace now. Some points that resonate with me in this thread. 1/n
His opening remarks were prepared and nothing really new there--hit all the talking points he& #39;s made in recent appearances. 2/n
First Q from Stephen Hadley: What makes you hopeful that talks will succeed? A: Both sides understand that violence cannot be the answer forever. Afghan leaders recognize they made a mistake in the wake of Soviet withdrawal by fighting each other--want to rectify that now. 3/n
2nd Q: What makes you think the #Taliban aren& #39;t just waiting these talks out? A: TB learned lesson from the 90s--pursuit of military victory will turn #Afghanistan into #Syria. They& #39;ve sent very senior & empowered Talibs to #Doha--serious negotiating team. 4/n
3rd Q: What& #39;s the level of violence in #Afghanistan against Afghans & what commitments did the #Taliban make to the US on violence? A: Violence is too high--both sides using it as a means to shape the negotiations. TB agreed to no attacks on major cities or major bases... 5/n
...& redux in attacks on district centers. Latest CIVCAS numbers show declines from last year. #Taliban haven& #39;t tried to take as many district/prov centers this year as last year. But violence does need to come down. Talking to both sides now to address this... 6/n
...Hoping that public pressure will help. Levels of violence now are "unacceptably high." 7/n
4th Q: How do you assess #Pakistan& #39;s role so far? A: PAK has been helpful. Would like to see an adjunct to whatever peace agreement is reached among Afghans, between #Afghanistan & PAK to say that neither side will allow its territory to be used against the other. 8/n
5th Q: Does the US have a vested interest in women& #39;s rights in #Afghanistan? What role should the US play to ensure the rights of all Afghans are protected? A: This is an important issue for the US & the world. Legitimate concerns on this given #Taliban record of the 90s... 9/n
... #Taliban now say that women can work, go to school, even be ministers. US has made it clear that future US support to #Afghanistan will depend on several issues, a top one of which is respect of human rights, including for women. US also working w/int& #39;l partners on this. 10/n
6th Q: GEN McKenzie ( @CENTCOM) has said drawdown of US troops to 4-5k by NOV. What conditions have to be met to withdraw all US troops from #Afghanistan? A: US troop presence in AFG is not an "end unto itself." That presence is conditional & the US- #Taliban agreement... 11/n
...identifies four conditions: 1) #Taliban action on counter terrorist groups; 2) various actions by the US; 3) establishment of road map/structure for peace talks; 4) comprehensive ceasefire. US will make a judgment on these before withdrawing all troops. 12/n
1st audience Q: You negotiated a deal among elites--how do you guarantee it helps all Afghans? A: The US deal was negotiated w/ #Taliban leaders. It included a requirement for a limited ceasefire, which happened. The US also signed a Joint declaration w/ #Afghanistan& #39;s govt... 13/n
...which was consulted with opposition parties, civil groups, etc. So, it was a representative agreement. For peace to work in #Afghanistan, it has to have broad internal & external support--that& #39;s why the US has pursued a broad/inclusive group of actors. 14/n
3rd Q: Do you agree w/the #Taliban position of an interim govt & no ceasefire til the end of the talks? A: The two negotiating teams have agreed on 18-20 rules for the talks so far. Couple of outstanding issues: 1) What religious guidelines will be used to resolve issues? 15/n
...2) How does the US- #Taliban agreement fit into these peace talks? @US4AfghanPeace believes Afghans have to work these issues out themselves--trying not to weigh in, as tempting as that is. US does believe a ceasefire is needed soonest. 16/n
3rd Q: 14k Afghans have been killed since US- #Taliban deal--what specific terms of a ceasefire are needed to meet that agreement? A: It doesn& #39;t mean "no violence"--there are many sources of violence in #Afghanistan beyond TB & the govt (e.g., #ISIS). Other spoilers as well. 17/n
...but the #Taliban & govt are the two main causes of violence & so working on ceasefire terms now. Don& #39;t forget though that US still comes to defense of the #ANDSF. Violence does undermine the peace process though & #Taliban know some reduction needs to happen. 18/n
4th Q: What actions have #Taliban taken against #alQaeda? What AQ presence is left in #Afghanistan? A: Very small number of AQ, even if you include AQIS. Mostly focused on survival b/c US is "hunting for them." TB have taken some steps but need to take more... 19/n
...this is "unfinished business" in the eyes of the US. More will be req& #39;d to meet terms of the US- #Taliban agreement. Discussed more details w/Congress in a closed session--can& #39;t say more in this venue. 20/n
5th Q: How do you assess regional support for peace so far now? What more do you want from regional actors? A: Impressed by what regional powers such as #China, #Russia, #India have done so far. UN endorsement of FEB agreements was helpful. Countries asking for ceasefires... 21/n
...has been helpful; also conveying unacceptable nature of an "Emirate." #Iran still playing a mixed role--want the US to remain bogged down in #Afghanistan. US has invited IRN to participate/play a helpful role, but still seeing disturbing actions w/negative impacts... 22/n
...peace in #Afghanistan would provide great economic benefits to the entire region of Central/South Asia. Regional connectivity/trade/development would be for the good of the region & its people. 23/n
6th Q: What role do you think the NOV donor conf can play in the peace process? Would you support bringing the #Taliban into that mtg? A: Fascinating to him that there& #39;s still so much int& #39;l interest in #Afghanistan. Competition among states to host these events... 24/n
...makes him hopeful. This is another opportunity for Afghan leaders & the region. On the #Taliban, nothing to say on that now--would have to discuss that w/them. Follow-up Q: Is there int& #39;l consensus on importance of women& #39;s right? A: All of the major donors are aligned. 25/n
7th Q: Did the US present specific women& #39;s rights conditions to the #Taliban during your negotiations? A: US is looking for parallel events/ways to highlight this issue alongside the peace talks. #Afghanistan today isn& #39;t the same as pre-US involvement--lots of changes. 26/n
...he tells the #Taliban that they need to become more acquainted w/ #Afghanistan as it exists today. Encouraging that women are on the govt negotiating team--directly involved. Women want peace, IAT their right. They are mothers, wives, soldiers, police-not just one issue. 27/n
8th Q: Would the US have a problem w/a govt that includes the #Taliban? Non-democratic? A: The goal of the peace talks is an inclusive settlement--means the TB would be in the govt. Even @ashrafghani & @DrabdullahCE say this. US goal is an inclusive govt that can help w/CT. 28/n
& US wants to be able to cont assistance to #Afghanistan. Will have to look at US laws & limitations on what we can do IRT whatever govt is agreed on, but we& #39;ll do that. Given how far we& #39;ve come & all challenges overcome so far, have great confidence in finding formulas... 29/n
...to work through all of this. US can leave anytime we want--we don& #39;t need permission to do so. That& #39;s not our goal. We want something good to be left behind. 30/30
PS: Please forgive any typos/grammatical issues--I was typing fast. Also, consider these all my paraphrases of what @US4AfghanPeace said unless you see quotations. If you& #39;d like to watch the event, I believe they& #39;ll post a recording here: https://www.usip.org/events/beginning-end-afghanistans-conflict">https://www.usip.org/events/be...
