1/21

A very well reasoned piece but may be @MD_Nalapat has under assessed the dire straits we are in.

Xi will do anything to prevent a mil defeat fm India & has adequately prepared for that. Yes, Chinese soldiers can't match the Indian braves but why should they......

Cont'd https://twitter.com/AnkushDey_/status/1309005377753821185
2/21

....risk a Galwan type of a sit again?

There is consensus that China wants to :-

1.Weaken/demean India so that it's less of a competitor & cannot muster/unite/strengthen SE Asia countries against China & prevent it to dissuade western powers too from resisting....

Cont'd
3/21

.....China's rise.

2. It wants to ensure success of CPEC for which it has to capture more of Ladakh territory as also take full control of PoK, Gilgit/Baltistan etc. It will do anything to ensure safe/easy passage to the Arabian Sea.

To counter China's further...

Cont'd
4/21

.....march in Ladakh, India has indeed strengthened its position for a purely land battle, but why would China not exercise other options where it is stronger.

Coming to @narendramodi Ji:-

As against UPA who were, as is evident from their China "accommodating"...

Cont'd
5/21

......attitude of ignoring Salami Slicing & to the extent of signing the notorious MoU, Modi was difficult to counter in a face off.

So they used these past 6 yrs to weave a web to neutralize him.

Their assessment that Modi:-

1. Was just a CM & had little.......

Cont'd
6/21

......experience of realpolitik at the National as well as the international levels. How the Congi Ecosystem took him for a ride is proof enough.

2. They must have also read his desire to escape from confrontation, being a MKG bhakt.

Therefore, instead of .....

Cont'd
7/21

.......LEARNING FROM HISTORY & accepting China as our enemy & preparing to counter it through preparing India as also building an international coalition for the same, he spent 6 yrs wooing Xi, enriching China economically & at the same time neglecting protection...

Cont'd
8/21

.....of LAC.

Also, instead of neutralizing Pak, he first tried to woo it & then took piece meal steps only. As a consequence, Pak not only continues to bleed us through terror but has become a defacto Chinese territory for it to use this advantage to counter......

Cont'd
9/21

........India militarily as well as politically. Chest thumping not withstanding, taking back PoK has now become all the more difficult.

Similarly, the way China has consolidated its position in Ladakh, we might as well also stop dreaming of taking back.......

Cont'd
10/21

.......AksaiChin.

Only way to protect the LAC was to have boundary with Tibet instead of China but not only did Modi do nothing about liberating it, we even started ignoring DalaiLama.

Modi, in order to fulfill his likely dream of bagging a Nobel or being......

Cont'd
11/21

.......recognized a World Class Statesman somewhat neglected National Security.

Defence budget was no different from the UPA time.

Appointing a Cop as the NSA may not have been a very apt decision, no matter how capable Doval may be. Over reliance on......

Cont'd
12/21

.........Babus, MEA & others, at the expense of hardcore mil advice is quite apparent from the mess we are in today.

A case in point is induction of a few Rafale ac. With so much drama & publicity we have made the poor tax payers feel that India today is......

Cont'd
13/21

......invincible, which most experts know, is far from being true.

Diplomatically we are no better. Russia, who we have fattened with Billions in Mil purchases, West Europe, Arab nations, Iran,Turkey, SE Asian countries, none will openly side with us against.....

Cont'd
14/21

.......China even verbally. Though the US has taken hard stand against China, there is no diplomatic treaty wherein it will come to our aid against China in a war like scenario. Even Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka will look the other side.

Cont'd
15/21

TODAY AGAINST CHINA WE ARE ALL ALONE.

Exactly like Modi Govt dreams of Peace & Tranquility through talks, many the world over are busy lulling themselves with the lullaby that Xi has chosen the wrong time, taken on too many fronts & a defeat here, coupled...

Cont'd
16/21

......with weak internal economy, internal political dissentions etc will soon spell dooms for Xi & the world will then be freed from impending Chinese dominance.

Facts, however, belie this belief.

Despite US & other navies burning precious fuel in China.....

Cont'd
17/21

......Sea, China still holds the annexed islands. Threat to Taiwan Japan & others in SE Asia is still intact.

So what have these Naval Regatta achieved? ZERO.

Not only the elections constraints, the US achieves little from a kinetic action in China Sea. What....

Cont'd
18/21

.....scores US wants to settle it will do economically & diplomatically.

China on the other hand continues to dominate through:-

Debt traps.
Spread of #ChineseBioterrorism
Sowing seeds of unrest is almost all the adversary countries.
Cyber/Electronic war.

Cont'd
19/21

Domination of world supply chains.

India is placed in the most unenvious position in this face off. Our leaders' bravado is only for own clientele. Our leaders even hid the fact that China attacked our space assets.

Modi, most likely, would have "pleased".....

Cont'd
20/21

......Xi, had it not been for Galwan, which blew the lid off from the Chinese invasion.

The mess we are in today & the fact that our leadership thinks that the Nation is not strong enough to call out Pak Terror State, China Virus, HK, Tibet, Taiwan etc, taking...

Cont'd
21/21

....a call on 5G, tough Eco decisions against China, leave alone joining a Mil Alliance, our future looks uncertain, to put it mildly.

A Mil defeat, in addition to causing economic & psychological hurt is likely to see Modi's departure, THE BEST PM.

Jai Hind

@Chellaney
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