I disagree with this - unless by ‘Theresa May-like deal’ we mean ‘entails some compromises’.

UK will have to move on LPF to get a deal (as will the EU) but there isn’t going to be a customs union or Chequers-like alignment https://twitter.com/steve_hawkes/status/1308861949036376065

(That is - I agree that a deal is a highly plausible outcome still: I don’t think it will be anything like May’s plan for Brexit.)

Also - it’s not l clear to me that the ‘border in Kent’ thing is just a no deal thing - there will be major changes at the border even with a deal