I mean, this is right in a sense. Lots of folks (imo) conflating chance of illegitimate attempts to subvert the election (certain) with chance they succeed (less much less certain).

But https://mobile.twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1308819601040519173

The problem is the latter of those is a low-likelihood but cataclysmically consequential event. As in, and I mean this without hyperbole, it would break the back of the American system entirely.

For those types of low-likelihood cataclysmic events you have this messy problem that, if you roll the dice and win, everything you did sounds like hyperbole. And if you roll the dice and lose, everything you did and said sounds not hyperbolic enough

It's kind of like pandemics in that regard. Everything you suggest (tell people to stop conferences, work from home, close restauraunts) can sound like an utterly insane overreaction one week and an outrageously complacent underreaction a few weeks later

Can of course debate what the likelihood is exactly, but it's certainly orders of magnitude higher than it has ever been, and things like this is why https://mobile.twitter.com/kaitlancollins/status/1308895794947387393