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Up first we have @davidthornhill who will discuss how @AP runs their Decision Desk on Election Night
The Decision Desk declares the winners of election. Once they declare, that is their final word, says @davidthornhill; they don't make projections or predictions; once they make an announcement, that's it
On Nov. 3 and in the days after, @AP will declare winners from ~7,000 races, from the White House down the ballot through local elections
The @AP Decision Desk includes 60 analysts, as well as local race callers in each state, who spend months leading up to the election preparing and staying up to date on their state's laws, history, and updates
How does @AP call a winner? @stephenatap says it's when they've determined that there is no possible way for the opponent to catch up and take over the election
On Election Night, @AP uses their proprietary VoteCast system, as well as vote count, absentee and early vote counts, their own AP vote model, and in special cases, votes counted after Election Day
. @stephenatap says counting votes after Election Day is normal, but because of this special situation re: the pandemic, they expect to be counting and adding votes after Election Day in many more states
It's all about collaboration says @davidthornhill; everyone on the @AP Decision Desk team is involved in calling. Sometimes, the race may be too early to call, or may be too close to call; too close to call means the vote count ends with no clear winner
How will @AP call races in a pandemic? @davidthornhill says we've seen a lot of the practices we'll see this year, just not in such great numbers or as widely spread
. @stephenatap notes that advance ballots, such as mail-in ballots, take longer to process, especially in states where ballots cannot be processed prior to Election Day; some states allow early processing, others do not
. @AP will get data on early votes and on votes done on Election Day and will be able to discuss how early voters compared to Election Day voters and how the races are going with both groups of voters
. @stephenatap says that @AP is in constant communication with states about how many ballots have been cast and how many are expected in order to give audience the best idea of how many people are voting and how many votes have been cast for each candidate
re: precincts reporting, @davidthornhill says that's still a good way to see how things are going in *some* states or jurisdictions, but it's not always the best picture given how different precincts count
. @davidthornhill also notes that in places where vote centers are used rather than precinct-based voting (as we'll be doing in DC this year), precinct reporting is obviously not as helpful
. @stephenatap says that every time a vote comes in, the @AP has tools that track it and allow them to predict how many more votes they can expect to be waiting for, as well as get a sense of the voter turnout in each precinct as well as across states
Q re: votes coming in after Election Day, and what to expect: @davidthornhill says it's not a "concern" that we may still be expecting votes in the days after Election Day, but that the @AP team is paying particular attention to this and to laws and changes around this issue
. @davidthornhill says that a state that begins processing or counting mail-in and early votes sooner will have a better idea of how things are going and what to expect on Election Day, while states that wait won't have that same outlook
. @davidthornhill says that if a lot of precincts say "we're done for the night but we're not done counting," that means reporters have to be extra careful about any announcements and wait to see if there's any information they don't have and if a trailing candidate can catch up
. @stephenatap says some of the data re: early/mail-in voting comes from how many people have requested absentee or mail-in ballots, as well as how many people who voted in early voting, and that can then be compared with Election Day voting to see trends
At the end of the night, @stephenatap says they hope to have an idea of how many votes have been counted and what kind of votes have been counted, as well as what kind and how many ballots are expected to still be counted after Election Night, such as mail-in and provisional
. @davidthornhill says that @AP isn't sitting in isolation looking at data screens; they will have roughly 5,000 reporters out in communities reporting on Election Night; a colleague calls it "the biggest act of journalism"
Q re: how will @AP handle races where it seems impossible to declare a winner on Election Night/early the next morning; @stephenatap says they'll handle this year the same way they always have, with on-the-ground reporters and lots of caution and work beforehand and after
. @davidthornhill says the presidential election gets all the attention, but Election Week isn't new in a lot of states, so @AP is used to reporting on Election Day being a long-term project that is not just about one day
. @stephenatap says the first day he took off after Election Day last time around was Thanksgiving, so if he can take a day off earlier than that, he'll consider this a good year 
Q re: how do we communicate to audiences that this is normal; @stephenatap says the best way to explain that is that we tell them it's normal, first of all, and also make sure we're not alarmist
. @stephenatap says we also need to make sure we tell them that sometimes it's not about a race being too close to call, but about it being too early; remind them that counting votes takes time
. @davidthornhill says for local reporters it's important to know the rules in your area and report about it now; do a lot of explanatory reporting ahead of the election to get people prepared and make sure they're not surprised on Election Day if something "abnormal" happens
. @stephenatap says that @AP will consume this local news, as well, to help *them* stay on top of how other communities will be impacted by different rules and regulations around elections
Q re: big uncertainties about which votes get counted (like arson at a voting center, or provisional votes w/out a secrecy envelope); @davidthornhill says all of this is taken into consideration, and this where they really rely on the team on the ground in each state
. @AP is looking at the numbers on Election Night, yes, but @davidthornhill says that they rely very heavily on their local reporters to keep them up-to-date about how things are going and to let them know what the numbers can't tell them to complete the story
. @davidthornhill says this is why @AP doesn't rely just on numbers or just on the Washington bureau, that their full team across the country is what allows them, the humans behind the Decision Desk, to actually make the calls
. @stephenatap says they use every possible bit of information available to them to determine if they can call a winner; they look at vote history, the votes they have in already, as well as expertise on local precincts who know community makeup and how/when they vote
Re: VoteCast data: @davidthornhill says VoteCast data will become available at 5pm ET on Election Day; they don't release any data on candidate choice until polls close, and even then it will be topline data; no data will be available before Election Day
For those who aren't @AP customers, there's a lot of AP coverage that reporters can turn to to help them, and a lot of interactive stories and tools
How is @AP different from other decision desks? @davidthornhill says AP doesn't pay attention to what other decision desks are doing on Election Night; they focus solely on the information coming directly to them and on what they know how to do; they aren't influenced by others
The @AP election team doesn't just come together one year out of four, says @davidthornhill, they're working year-round every year to make sure they have all the information going into Election Night to tell the full story
How can journalists work when they're seeing conflicting calls on Election Night? @davidthornhill says that in those situations, just state the facts very plainly; "X has declared victory, Y hasn't conceded, but we haven't called the race, and here's why"
It's always good to lay the facts out and let people know exactly what's happening and why you're not able to give them a solid answer; put the race in context for your readers if someone attempts to declare victory before the outcome can really be known
. @stephenatap notes that a declaration of victory or a concession is not legally binding; recall 2000 presidential election, when @AP didn't call the race on Election Night because there were still too many votes to call; it may be uncomfortable at times, but it's right
. @davidthornhill says @AP has been trying to put out a lot of explanatory reporting about how the election will work and will continue to do so on Election Day in order to help journalists and readers understand why things are happening and to be fully transparent
What info can reporters share if @AP hasn't yet called a race? @stephenatap says it's not just about there being X number of votes left to be counted, but where are those votes being counted; and what are the recount rules in that state
Some states have mandatory recounts, and others have only candidate-requested recounts; in most places this isn't much of an issue, but in a presidential election this is much more important, and something @AP will be paying more attention to
If the margin is or is likely to stay larger than one half of one percent, @stephenatap says they will likely call the race
Q re: why @AP calls a race and doesn't say "projected to win"; @davidthornhill says it's about the standard they hold themselves to and about the certainty they want to offer, and projections aren't certain
. @davidthornhill says it's possible that things will go incredibly smoothly; another outcome is a really difficult night; it will vary from place to place, and trying to get ahead of the voters is dangerous
And that's a wrap on today's webinar! Tune in next week for another discussion, this time on how @AP tabulates the vote: https://www.eventbrite.com/e/trusted-elections-network-conversations-with-the-associated-press-tickets-118832917455
And some resources from @AP: This page includes links to info about race calling, vote count, polling, etc.: https://www.ap.org/media-center/understanding-the-election
Information about AP VoteCast: https://www.ap.org/en-us/topics/politics/elections/ap-votecast/faq
How AP counts the vote: https://www.ap.org/en-us/topics/politics/elections/counting-the-vote
More on race calling from @stephenatap: https://blog.ap.org/behind-the-news/understanding-the-election-how-ap-declares-winners
More on race calling and election night from @davidthornhill: https://blog.ap.org/behind-the-news/understanding-the-election-why-this-year-is-different
And some information on @AmPress's incredible Trusted Elections Network, if you're not already familiar: https://www.americanpressinstitute.org/trusted-elections-network/
