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RECAP THREAD: USF
The postponement of this Saturday's Wake Forest game just gives you more time to read about analytics from the first two games!
Recapping USF, as always thanks to @CFB_data and @cfbscrapR for their help. (1/12)
The postponement of this Saturday's Wake Forest game just gives you more time to read about analytics from the first two games!
Recapping USF, as always thanks to @CFB_data and @cfbscrapR for their help. (1/12)
For definitions of terminology used in this thread, check out this primer on @onefootdown for everything you will need to analyze with a big brain. (2/12) https://www.onefootdown.com/21438547/primer-for-understanding-analytics-recaps-and-previews-college-football-notre-dame-advanced-stats-nd
The Irish took firm grip on this game early and never looked back. USF was never favored and never got below 99% probability to lose after the 10 minute mark in the second quarter. (3/12)
As predicted in our preview, the USF run defense was suspect. Kyren Williams was great carrying the load while Chris Tyree looked explosive as a change of pace back. C'Bo Flemister ran hard in garbage time separating himself as the third back. Jafar... you know he played. (4/12)
Ian Book was not great in this game, but he was better than some are saying. To start, this was an extremely formidable USF pass defense, posting top 40 analytics across the board against the pass in 2019. Despite this, Book threw for a solid .23 EPA/play in the 1st half. (5/12)
Book did have one awful 2nd half drive where he averaged -.56 EPA/play, but the game wasn't close then and it only impacted his top line numbers so much because threw just 21 times. Book's inaccuracy on short throws is concerning, but tap the brakes on the Bookpocalypse. (6/12)
After begging Tommy Rees to use more play action and mix in more first down throws after the Duke game, he did both of these and it paid off handsomely. The Irish were truly unpredictable on offense against USF, and it helped tremendously. (7/12)
Last weekend we argued Rees was not putting Book in a position to succeed with his play calling. This was decidedly not the case this weekend. Rees' first down run pass mix and high play action usage were just what the doctor ordered. (8/12)
The Irish were excellent out of all of their formations, but their multi tight end sets were dominant. This is the opposite of what we saw last season, so credit to Kelly and Rees turning these multi tight end sets from a weakness to a strength (at least for now). (9/12)
The Irish were spectacular on defense despite missing several key players due to COVID testing and injuries. Jack Kiser, Isaiah Foskey, and others stepped up to fill the gaps and earn a gutsy shutout. Clark Lea will have a shot at a power five head coaching job in 2021. (10/12)
The Irish were able to shut down early running plays, forcing Jordan McCloud and the USF offense into obvious passing situations they struggled in. This is exactly what they did to Duke, and is a winning defensive formula going forward. #GoIrish (11/12)
With the Wake Forest game postponed, look for some different content than you're used to from this account until the next game! As always for more info on USF check out our post on @onefootdown. Stay safe and Go Irish! (12/12) https://www.onefootdown.com/2020/9/22/21450843/analytics-recap-south-florida-bulls-ian-book-kyren-williams-jack-kiser-brian-kelly-advanced-stats-nd
