RIGHT so having spoken to a senior NHS doctor I actually trust not to have whacky and highly-politicised views on the topic of 'what is going on'.

(thread)

- We WILL see an increase in deaths over the next 21 days, because after an increased amount of positive cases that are being recorded, a % of those known to be infected are going to die.

- We don't however, know what that % may be - it might be much higher or lower than 0.7%- because we don't have a baseline for how many of those are high risk demographics. Patients over 85 in intensive care are far more likely to die than a patient under 25, for example.

- This isn't a reason to panic, because it was inevitable that in opening schools and universities, where most testing is taking place, there would be a rise in cases. However, the GOOD news is that the majority of those at schools and universities are in a low risk category.

- Provided people aren't unbelievably stupid (they actually haven't been as a majority, contrary to public opinion) this is likely to be another peak rather than an upwards trajectory. We will definitely see other peaks (colder weather, holidays, local events).

- However, it is really important to *stay away* from people who are at high risk if at all possible. It is really hard, but that will make all the difference in ensuring death rates stay low over the winter period.

Also, more as a sidenote, they feel the government completely failed yesterday and have tanked public morale, support in tackling the virus, and the economy.

But don't we all.

*end of thread*