Just when you though life could get no better, YET ANOTHER @UKandEU No Deal report comes out and proves you wrong. You can find it here (THREAD) 1/19 https://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/UKICE-What-would-no-deal-mean.pdf

Strap in. There’s a lot to say. And I’ve learnt about gifs 2/19

This report was truly a team effort – and it was quite a team! I have to thank @CSBarnard24, @dgbailey, @ProfTimBale, @matt_bevington, @MeredithCrowle1, @drsarah_hall, @hayward_katy, @MartinHeneghan, Carmen Hubbard, @james_lisak, @HusseinHKassim, @McEwen_Nicola… 3/19

…Meg Russell ( @ConUnit_UCL), @ThimontJack, @keinzleCSSS, @jdportes, @IvanRajicUK, @jillongovt, @thom_sampson, @DrAlanWager & @DanielWinc 4/19

BorisJohnson has said that no deal with the EU would be a “good outcome” for the UK. This report highlights what it would mean in terms of trade, fisheries, connectivity, the impact on citizens, Northern Ireland, economics, security, foreign policy, politics and more 5/19

So, the headlines. On #trade, the two sides would revert to #WTO rules. And guess what? We’ve got a report on what WTO rules means for you: https://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/Revisited-What-would-trading-on-WTO-terms-mean-1.pdf 6/19

But, to summarise, we’re talking, tariffs, customs checks, and regulatory checks. In other words, increased hassle, increased time and increased costs for businesses trading with the EU. AS Michael Gove told us this morning, we face the prospect of disruption at the border 7/19

On #fisheries, the UK would regain full control over its waters, but UK fishers would find it harder to sell their fish in the EU 8/19

On #energy, trade will continue tariff-free but UK will be outside EU internal energy market, effects for security of supply and prices. On #data, without an adequacy agreement, flows of data to the UK would require extra safeguards. Can't think of a gif for data 9/19

On #roads, changes to permits, regulations and border controls mean haulage will face huge challenges, with effects across the economy
On #aviation, basic connectivity may continue through unilateral mitigations on both sides, but this will introduce huge uncertainty 10/19

For citizens, travelling to the EU, working in the EU, driving to the EU, having health insurance in the EU or taking your pet to the EU will all require more form filling than now 11/19

On #NorthernIreland, although the Withdrawal Agreement dealt with many issues, no deal would have major impacts on GB-NI trade in particular
No deal would mean no bilateral means to ease trade flows and minimise checks on goods entering NI from GB 12/19

Incidentally, If you’re interested in the Internal Market Bill and its implications, guess what? We’ve got loads on our site, including this piece by @hayward_katy explaining what it all means for Northern Ireland 13/19 https://ukandeu.ac.uk/what-happened-when-the-uk-internal-market-bill-met-the-ni-irl-protocol/

On the #economics, no deal would be a further major shock to the UK economy. While Covid would have a greater short-term impact, over the longer term the impact of no deal would 2 to 3 times bigger 14/19

On #security, the UK would fall back on much less effective international instruments, like Interpol and older international treaties. The UK would lose access to EU databases that provide vital info for tackling crime and many tools UK law enforcement have come to rely on 15/19

And then there’s the diplomatic fallout. If the talks collapse, each side will blame the other. There will be a lot of finger pointing. Sitting down to resume talks will not be easy, nor will cooperation on a host of other issues 16/19

So while it is true that the gap between the thin deal the PM wants and no deal is small, there is still a huge difference. A deal at least prevents a falling out and means we can keep talking and collaborating. 17/19

That was a rapid run through – the report is full of detail on what no deal means in each of these areas, and more
Do take the time to read it in full 18/19 https://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/UKICE-What-would-no-deal-mean.pdf

No, no. Don't thank me. END