Just been on @bbcR4today talking to Justin about this Gove letter to industry about updated “reasonable worst case scenario” for post Brexit transition period border - first time clear acknowledgement of potential disruption on 1/1/21

“Maximum queues of 7000 port bound trucks”

contained in a letter sent yesterday to industry, encouraging it to get prepared for the new border irrespective of whether there is a deal or not...

delay scenario of 2 days - is almost the same as was in the Operation Yellowhammer No Deal documents (1.5 to 2.5 days) last year

Underlying projection is 70% of freight trucks traveling to EU from UK, and up to half on short straits crossing (Dover/ Eurotunnel) will not have correct documentation, coupled with assumption France will instigate full goods controls, stopping all freight without correct docs:

Such would be the extent of delays that lorries “caught up in congestion in the UK will be “unable to travel to the EU to export products” / collect another consignment “therefore we assume both imports and exports could be disrupted to a similar extent”...

Delays assumed to build over first two weeks of January and last up to three months as traders get used to new checks, but could last beyond that if France applies rigorously Schengen passport checks at juxtaposed border (first time I’ve seen that detailed as a potential issue).

Includes assumption that “some logistics operators may stop sending lorries via these routes in the event of significant delays” - this was a key fear of supermarkets’ no deal planning last year, particularly for refrigerated lorries carrying fresh food