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What is happening at the intersection of energy/climate/political economy in India?
There are no easy answers to such a question. And so, in what will be a slow-growing thread, a look at what @carboncopyinfo and I are finding. #energy
There are no easy answers to such a question. And so, in what will be a slow-growing thread, a look at what @carboncopyinfo and I are finding. #energy
1. As their traditional markets slow, global fossil fuel majors are eyeing India, hoping to get their last big burst of growth from the country. https://carboncopy.info/indias-great-fossil-fuels-push/
2. Of the many things we found while working on that report, India’s policy incoherence stood out. By 2024, the country wants to double coal production. By 2030, it wants to double oil demand, treble gas demand, double refining capacity, multiply renewable capacity fivefold.
3. Given such incoherence, price signals – not policy – will drive India’s #energytransition. And that is where the entry of fossil fuel majors might be a problem. This piece explains why. https://carboncopy.info/why-indias-ghg-emissions-are-about-to-rise-faster/
4. To make sense of this confusing picture, @carboncopyinfo and I are now taking closer looks at each fossil fuel. The first one we looked at was Gas. On paper, the government is bullish – and wants to push Gas up to 15% of India’s energy mix. https://carboncopy.info/can-gas-account-for-15-of-indias-energy-mix/
5. That won’t happen for all the reasons listed in this article. https://carboncopy.info/why-indias-gas-boom-is-running-out-of-steam/. (Political gains trumping energy policy; domestic gas reserves falling; imported gas uncompetitive...)
The outcomes are extraordinary. To keep Gas competitive, the govt is...
a. making companies subsidise users.
b. resulting in an outcome where banks lend unwillingly.
c. most of the burden falls on state oilcos in short term
d. and centre in long-term.
a. making companies subsidise users.
b. resulting in an outcome where banks lend unwillingly.
c. most of the burden falls on state oilcos in short term
d. and centre in long-term.
6. This potentially pushes India into same trap as Pakistan (which has to keep feeding gas to its consumers at cost of other sectors) or, as costs mount, back towards cheaper fuels like coal. Or intensified domestic gas exploration (think Baghjan). https://carboncopy.info/the-four-hidden-risks-lurking-in-indias-gas-expansion-plans/
Next up, Coal.
