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To all my neighbors in WA, as we pass the devastating milestone of 200,000 confirmed deaths nationally and the news is trumpeting forecasts of much worse to come, I feel optimistic that we will continue to choose to prevent further catastrophe here. Here's a few reasons why: 1/x.
After the first outbreak in the country and later one of the largest per capita on the West Coast, we now have one of the lowest ongoing per-capita death rates in the US. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html#states. Scroll way down the image to see!
We are controlling the transmission rate -- keeping the reproduction number (Re) near and below 1 -- about as well as in April. Despite fewer people staying home. We're doing it with masks, workplace safety, (mostly...) avoiding unnecessary gatherings. https://covid.idmod.org/data/WA_Situation_Report_15_COVID-19_transmission_across_Washington_State.pdf
Districts across the state are being cautious about reopening schools, with targets set to emulate the countries that are successfully controlling COVID with at least some in-person schooling, even though this is hard. https://www.doh.wa.gov/Portals/1/Documents/1600/coronavirus/DecisionTree-K12schools.pdf. https://www.seattletimes.com/education-lab/why-washington-states-guidelines-to-open-schools-are-more-cautious-than-others/
We remain poised on a cliff, with outbreaks occurring wherever people get together without protection, like recently around WSU. But we continue to respond to outbreaks with renewed commitment to regain control, like around WSU. https://www.spokesman.com/stories/2020/sep/02/covid-19-cases-have-quadrupled-in-whitman-county-i/; https://www.doh.wa.gov/Emergencies/COVID19/DataDashboard
If we get just a little better at doing our parts to control COVID19--to get Re below 1 and keep it there--we will get kids back in school without catastrophe. We will pass through the winter without catastrophe.
The choice is up to us, and while nothing is guaranteed, my experience learning through data over the last 8 months makes me feel hopeful. We are doing it! We can keep doing it! Once a transplant, I'm proud to be a Washingtonian today.
