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This is why state party infrastructure matters. Run the right candidates made for the area and you'll find yourself over-performing the state's partisan lean by quite a bit. Montana elected Donald Trump by 21 points, but Steve Bullock won by 4. I had to create a new tier for this
Really just incredible. Gallatin is an area of growth for Democrats because of an influx of immigrants from Democratic areas -- it was one of the few counties to vote for Clinton. Missoula is now reliably blue as well. Flathead, meanwhile, isn't that elastic and is fairly red.
Cascade is an area in which this split is exemplified best, however. The county voted for Trump by 21 points and then voted for Bullock by 10 points over Gianforte. In the reverse direction, Trump won Lewis & Clark by 6, but Bullock carried it by 23.
I'm interested in seeing how Yellowstone county votes. It was Trump +27, but Bullock only lost it by 1. Given that its county seat is Billings (the capital), I expect Democrats to close the gap a bit in 2020.
I don't see Democrats winning Montana at the Presidential level, but 3 of the 4 most populous counties (Gallatin, Missoula, and Yellowstone) may be bluer. And third party effects will be much weaker in 2020. This would bode favorably for Bullock's chances against Daines.
As an aside, this kind of thing is heavily reliant on state party infrastructure. With proper investment, you'll see good candidates recruited across the ballot who can then buck partisanship and define themselves to the voters, and that's generally great in unfavorable states.
This is why the Democrats have been so bad in Florida -- the state party is terrible at fundraising and coordinating resources, and it shows. Nikki Fried is the only Democrat elected statewide! Ditto for the Virginia GOP; the state's blue, but it's not "lock the GOP out" blue.
And so if you follow these patterns, the Arizona GOP should be very scared. Because they're going to have a choice soon: they can either go the way of Montana's Democratic Party and field strong candidates up and down the ballot, or they can trot out more Martha McSallys.
Conversely, if we can survive 2020 with good results, I'm extremely hopeful for the future of the Democratic Party all across the nation. They've built a strong party and replenished the bench of candidates in Georgia, Texas, Arizona, Wisconsin, NC, SC, Kansas, and others.
Recruitment matters, folks. Candidate quality, fundraising, and infrastructure are the real electoral lifeblood of parties. Without it, you'll go the way of the Arkansas Democrats or the California Republicans -- two strong state parties that collapsed to become afterthoughts.
