Read on Twitter
1. Three weeks ago, everyone was bashing the University of Illinois for having the audacity to run an in-person semester at a large state school by developing an in-house testing program test to screen 10,000 students per day.
2. Particular vitriol (and a decent xkcd) were directed at the physicists involved, @NigelGoldenfeld and @sergei_maslov.
The narrative was that these guys arrogantly came in, took over the epidemiologists' job, and botched it.
This was bullshit. Thread: https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1301667225586130944
The narrative was that these guys arrogantly came in, took over the epidemiologists' job, and botched it.
This was bullshit. Thread: https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1301667225586130944
3. Why? It seems that (1) the massive testing program found lots of cases upon entry and before it could influence transmission and (2) students partied, even after testing positive.
Newspapers ate it up. Even the @NYTimes. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/10/health/university-illinois-covid.html
Newspapers ate it up. Even the @NYTimes. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/10/health/university-illinois-covid.html
4. So what happened? Did the @Illinois_Alma epidemic spiral out of control?
Not at all.
The plan worked.
They're now testing 10,000 people a day with positivity rates below a half of a percent. https://go.illinois.edu/COVIDTestingData
Not at all.
The plan worked.
They're now testing 10,000 people a day with positivity rates below a half of a percent. https://go.illinois.edu/COVIDTestingData
5. "But they had to take more drastic steps, and reduce on-campus activity!"
Indeed they did. And a week ago they started relaxing again, without ill effect yet. Surveillance and rapid response are part of any reasonable plan. That they did this and it worked was a huge success.
Indeed they did. And a week ago they started relaxing again, without ill effect yet. Surveillance and rapid response are part of any reasonable plan. That they did this and it worked was a huge success.
6. But you wouldn't know it to read the newspapers, or even twitter. Mass condemnation two weeks ago, then radio silence.
It's not just unjust to the researchers who were pilloried for their part in this triumph. It perpetuates a false narrative that control is impossible.
It's not just unjust to the researchers who were pilloried for their part in this triumph. It perpetuates a false narrative that control is impossible.
7. Even if people don't feel that they owe @Illinois_Alma, @sergei_maslov, @NigelGoldenfeld, @rlsdvm_epivet, and the rest the team an apology (and I concede they may want to wait a bit longer and see), dropping this story when it turns for the better is a disservice to everyone.
8. Huge credit to schools like @Illinois_Alma, @Cornell, @AF_Academy, and others who put smart, innovative people on their campus in charge of figuring out a workable strategy, and stuck with them.
9. Now the rest of the schools — @UMich, @UWMadison, @UniversityofGA, @UNC, and many others — don't *need* to be smart and innovative. All they need to do now is copy the success stories.
10. Is UIUC completely in the clear now? Of course we don't know that. If there's anything should remember about pandemics it's that prediction is hard and things can change on a dime. But we're seeing great signs so far.
11. The huge blast of negative press was unjustified, and I urge media outlets who contributed then to provide updates on the situation now.
I'm optimistic, if cautious. UIUC epidemiologist @rlsdvm_epivet says it well, and deserves the last word. https://twitter.com/rlsdvm_epivet/status/1308520553154781184
I'm optimistic, if cautious. UIUC epidemiologist @rlsdvm_epivet says it well, and deserves the last word. https://twitter.com/rlsdvm_epivet/status/1308520553154781184
