1. Three weeks ago, everyone was bashing the University of Illinois for having the audacity to run an in-person semester at a large state school by developing an in-house testing program test to screen 10,000 students per day.
2. Particular vitriol (and a decent xkcd) were directed at the physicists involved, @NigelGoldenfeld and @sergei_maslov.

The narrative was that these guys arrogantly came in, took over the epidemiologists& #39; job, and botched it.

This was bullshit. Thread: https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1301667225586130944">https://twitter.com/CT_Bergst...
4. So what happened? Did the @Illinois_Alma epidemic spiral out of control?

Not at all.

The plan worked.

They& #39;re now testing 10,000 people a day with positivity rates below a half of a percent. https://go.illinois.edu/COVIDTestingData">https://go.illinois.edu/COVIDTest...
5. "But they had to take more drastic steps, and reduce on-campus activity!"

Indeed they did. And a week ago they started relaxing again, without ill effect yet. Surveillance and rapid response are part of any reasonable plan. That they did this and it worked was a huge success.
6. But you wouldn& #39;t know it to read the newspapers, or even twitter. Mass condemnation two weeks ago, then radio silence.

It& #39;s not just unjust to the researchers who were pilloried for their part in this triumph. It perpetuates a false narrative that control is impossible.
7. Even if people don& #39;t feel that they owe @Illinois_Alma, @sergei_maslov, @NigelGoldenfeld, @rlsdvm_epivet, and the rest the team an apology (and I concede they may want to wait a bit longer and see), dropping this story when it turns for the better is a disservice to everyone.
8. Huge credit to schools like @Illinois_Alma, @Cornell, @AF_Academy, and others who put smart, innovative people on their campus in charge of figuring out a workable strategy, and stuck with them.
9. Now the rest of the schools — @UMich, @UWMadison, @UniversityofGA, @UNC, and many others — don& #39;t *need* to be smart and innovative. All they need to do now is copy the success stories.
10. Is UIUC completely in the clear now? Of course we don& #39;t know that. If there& #39;s anything should remember about pandemics it& #39;s that prediction is hard and things can change on a dime. But we& #39;re seeing great signs so far.
11. The huge blast of negative press was unjustified, and I urge media outlets who contributed then to provide updates on the situation now.

I& #39;m optimistic, if cautious. UIUC epidemiologist @rlsdvm_epivet says it well, and deserves the last word. https://twitter.com/rlsdvm_epivet/status/1308520553154781184">https://twitter.com/rlsdvm_ep...
You can follow @CT_Bergstrom.
Tip: mention @twtextapp on a Twitter thread with the keyword “unroll” to get a link to it.

Latest Threads Unrolled: