The challenges of the electoral map for Donald Trump: a thread

Florida is extremely critical, but many other things are also

Here we have the states and districts from 2016 that Trump won but is unquestionably in danger of losing this time. 181 EVs is more than half of his total from 2016, and just over two-thirds of the 270 EV requirement to win.

It is highly implausible- downright absurd even, that Trump holds some of these states. Let's look at a few scenarios.

This is a modest improvement for Democrats in the Rust Belt. The final result would be 278 Biden - 260 Trump. It would take only tiny swings in each state.

Here we begin to see the true scope of the danger for Trump. Biden wins a small majority of these contested states, but is winning in what would be considered a landslide, 335-203.

Finally, the doomsday scenario for Republicans. It is ruinous for them that this map is more plausible at this point than a Trump victory map.

Biden holds every Clinton state and district and clobbers Trump nationwide. This would be the biggest defeat of an incumbent since 1980.

Personally, I would prefer to compare it to 1932, but the point stands.

There have been suggestions periodically that there are Clinton states that Trump could flip... these predictions are silly at best. Not in this environment, not with the trends in states like NV and NH.

How does Trump win this year? He needs Florida.

In this map, Biden has only flipped back ME-02 and Michigan north of the Mason-Dixon line, and fallen short across much of the Sun Belt. However, a tiny win in EV-rich Florida has put him over the top ala Bush 2000.

Michigan voting to the right of Florida is tantamount to physically impossible, and the ME-02 vote is not the deciding margin. Trump cannot win without Florida.

Arizona and North Carolina are losses that could be sustained if he's holding other states... and Florida.

Even the 16 EVs of Georgia or the 18 of Ohio would be survivable if just one of them flipped and he held Florida. His electoral count in 2016 was substantial to say the least.

That being said... there is a state that is even more a harbinger of doom for Trump. Rapidly Democratic-trending Texas flips the Presidency singlehandedly if Biden wins it.

Biden has gained no other ground back since Clinton's loss in 2016, just Texas. This makes him the winner.

If Texas votes for Biden, it is all over. Republican denial of their vulnerabilities in Texas would have consequences for the next 20 years or more if this comes true.

Florida is the stopgap to squeak out a victory. Texas is the bedrock upon which all Republican electoral strategies lie. Losing Texas alone would be calamitous for any Republican ever seeking the Presidency again, barring a major ideological shift in the parties.

In contrast to the Rust Belt trending R, the Sun Belt, which is trending D, is rapidly growing. Arizona, Georgia, and Texas are enormous liabilities for the GOP in the coming years if they cannot recapture their old coalitions.

The obvious take is obvious: the polling is extremely clear. Trump is extremely unlikely to win reelection, effectively doomed, and it is now a matter of how thoroughly he is trounced. Texas, Georgia, Iowa, and Ohio are all polling as Tossups. GOP nightmares are coming true.

A narrow win in Florida and holding those four states would still not be enough to win, it would only be preventing an unmitigated electoral disaster. With very little time left until Election Day, Trump is in a horrific position with no truly plausible way out.