> Individual & Community Risk of #COVID19 Infection from Close Contacts in Different Settings <

...early HEADLINES from @CanterburyCCUni #MetaAnalysis of 15 studies, comprising c.180,000 close contacts of c.14,000 infected persons, leading to c.7,000 secondary cases

THREAD

1/5

Individual risk of #COVID19 infection is lower than you might think

Even if your spouse or partner has COVID19, you only have a 1 in 4 risk of infection

For others in household, risk= 1 in 10

Outside household, general risk is 1 in 80, or 1 in 20 if you breach 1m distance

2/5

BUT, #COVID19 risk to community of individual behaviour is high

- 1 in 12 gatherings adhering to #RuleOf6 will result in a further infection if an infected person is present

- there is a 25% chance an infected person at a gathering of 20 will infect someone else

3/5

Multiply the community impact of what might feel like a low risk to an individual by millions of informal, unmitigated, unregulated gatherings every day, and by an infected individual& #39;s infectious period of up to 14 days, and the risk to community transmission becomes clear.

4/5

If individuals only consider individual risk, & feel precautions not necessary, community transmission will rise, meaning further, tighter, restrictions.

The MAJOR risk to individuals is thus halted economy, lost jobs, other diseases, poor health & wellbeing, closed schools

5/5