> Individual & Community Risk of #COVID19 Infection from Close Contacts in Different Settings <

...early HEADLINES from @CanterburyCCUni #MetaAnalysis of 15 studies, comprising c.180,000 close contacts of c.14,000 infected persons, leading to c.7,000 secondary cases

THREAD

1/5

Individual risk of #COVID19 infection is lower than you might think

Even if your spouse or partner has COVID19, you only have a 1 in 4 risk of infection

For others in household, risk= 1 in 10

Outside household, general risk is 1 in 80, or 1 in 20 if you breach 1m distance

2/5

BUT, #COVID19 risk to community of individual behaviour is high

- 1 in 12 gatherings adhering to #RuleOf6 will result in a further infection if an infected person is present

- there is a 25% chance an infected person at a gathering of 20 will infect someone else

3/5

Multiply the community impact of what might feel like a low risk to an individual by millions of informal, unmitigated, unregulated gatherings every day, and by an infected individual's infectious period of up to 14 days, and the risk to community transmission becomes clear.

4/5

If individuals only consider individual risk, & feel precautions not necessary, community transmission will rise, meaning further, tighter, restrictions.

The MAJOR risk to individuals is thus halted economy, lost jobs, other diseases, poor health & wellbeing, closed schools

5/5