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1. Let's talk about the agricultural revolution needed in South Asia in light of climate change.
There are five distinct impacts here: a higher frequency of floods, also of droughts, salinity from sea rise, change in crops as temperatures change, and irregular weather patterns.
There are five distinct impacts here: a higher frequency of floods, also of droughts, salinity from sea rise, change in crops as temperatures change, and irregular weather patterns.
2. With the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere already, these effects are here to stay, even if we magically come to a global agreement tomorrow.
We are in the midst of the climate catastrophe, and as the latest floods across S Asia showed, it is the poor paying the heaviest price.
We are in the midst of the climate catastrophe, and as the latest floods across S Asia showed, it is the poor paying the heaviest price.
3. "According to a study carried out by IIM Ahmedabad, IIT Gandhinagar and @CEEWIndia, India spent USD 91.8 billion in the 2013-14 financial year. These costs are projected to increase by USD 360 billion by 2030."
India's whole economy is only $3.2 bn. https://www.thethirdpole.net/2017/11/13/global-failures-evident-in-delhi-smog/
India's whole economy is only $3.2 bn. https://www.thethirdpole.net/2017/11/13/global-failures-evident-in-delhi-smog/
4. A lot of these costs are borne by marginal farmers, who make up more than 80% of the agriculture sector, and when floods and droughts happen, are very vulnerable.
@AparnaKarthi's deeply researched book is a must read in this regard: https://ninerupeesanhour.com/
@AparnaKarthi's deeply researched book is a must read in this regard: https://ninerupeesanhour.com/
5. These are people who will not have fallback positions when their crops fail, or are flooded; they rarely have insurance, they have limited savings.
People in the mountains fare scarcely better, with guaranteed crops disappearing: https://www.thethirdpole.net/2017/05/29/of-dusty-snow-and-rotten-apples/
People in the mountains fare scarcely better, with guaranteed crops disappearing: https://www.thethirdpole.net/2017/05/29/of-dusty-snow-and-rotten-apples/
6. Nor is this a situation peculiar to India, in Nepal's Mustang Valley high to the north, the apples are slowly withering away: https://www.thethirdpole.net/2019/01/15/photo-essay-mustang/
7. And the sea creeps up the coastline, even previous "salt-tolerant" strains of crops are dying in the fields: https://www.thethirdpole.net/2014/12/08/coastal-bangladesh-turns-too-salty-for-salt-tolerant-rice/
8. As agriculture is destroyed as a source of livelihood people flee to urban areas.
Even Bhutan, the strongest welfare state in the region, is struggling to deal with the consequences of a lack of jobs and farmers, forget about others: https://www.thethirdpole.net/2020/09/18/photo-story-abandoned-houses-haunt-rural-bhutan/
Even Bhutan, the strongest welfare state in the region, is struggling to deal with the consequences of a lack of jobs and farmers, forget about others: https://www.thethirdpole.net/2020/09/18/photo-story-abandoned-houses-haunt-rural-bhutan/
9. And if you think China has it figured out, then you just are not reading up enough about what is happening to the villages there: https://www.thethirdpole.net/2016/12/10/mined-out-cities-the-true-cost-of-coal/
or https://www.thethirdpole.net/2016/06/28/novel-reveals-plight-of-chinas-villages/
or https://www.thethirdpole.net/2016/06/28/novel-reveals-plight-of-chinas-villages/
10. Farmers are locked into growing crops for a stable market, but as the peri-urban areas, where markets used to be held, are swallowed up by real estate, the farmer is made dependent on the middlemen that navigate national, or even international, markets.
11. Prices are fluid, so farmers concentrate on select "safe" crops like wheat or paddy, promoting monoculture, destroying crop diversity, and still tying themselves to fairly volatile prices.
Government buying schemes help a little, but are, by definition, not diverse.
Government buying schemes help a little, but are, by definition, not diverse.
12. What is needed is to be able to grow more resilient crops, but - more importantly - more resilient markets.
This requires local innovations and a commitment to buy in the area.
There are some successful initiatives: https://www.thethirdpole.net/2018/09/21/from-apples-to-vegetables-in-sikkim/
This requires local innovations and a commitment to buy in the area.
There are some successful initiatives: https://www.thethirdpole.net/2018/09/21/from-apples-to-vegetables-in-sikkim/
13. Black rice, a local crop in India's northeast, has even become chic, but is still waiting for some kind of secured market access: https://www.thethirdpole.net/2020/07/20/assam-farmers-hope-to-cash-in-on-black-rice-superfood/
14. The core issue here is that to have any hope of dealing with the catastrophic changes we are seeing local markets have to be encouraged.
Tying farmers further into the global markets when they have little leverage is a recipe for further impoverishment.
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Tying farmers further into the global markets when they have little leverage is a recipe for further impoverishment.
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PS. The Ganga basin is one of the most engineered on earth. India has the largest number of water pumps, largely private, unrestricted.
As irregular water patterns continue we will pump out all our groundwater and die, parched, to plant cash crops for others' profits.
Enjoy.
As irregular water patterns continue we will pump out all our groundwater and die, parched, to plant cash crops for others' profits.
Enjoy.
