Republicans are losing, so it makes sense to take high-risk moves. But I think a lot of conservatives have gamed out scenarios where a fight over Barrett helps them consolidate support and haven't focused on similarly plausible scenarios where she causes the bottom to fall out.

A big fight over SCOTUS, focusing voters on risks to Roe and the ACA, hurts Trump with two constituencies -- affluent suburbanites Trump purports to woo with his warnings about law and order, and more-secular northern non-college whites, key to his 2016 win.

I agree with part of the GOP analysis that Democrats went a little nuts during the Kavanaugh process -- Swetnick, the Yearbook close readings, etc -- in a way that was unappealing. And yet they fought it at least to a draw in public opinion. With a little more discipline...

And the election we're about to have is not a race for senate seats in Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota.