The full impact of downturns in the economy take some time to reach higher education. Without action by the federal government to assist states, higher education in most states is facing severe cuts, likely to be larger than those incurred during the Great Recession. 1/N

There is time to act, but the window is closing. State policymakers and higher education leaders are planning now for budget cuts that will reduce student access. 2/N

Why do I think this? I spent the last few days reading state budget guidance documents for Fiscal 2022.

About state budgets: State fiscal years generally start on July 1, and are named for the year that they end. Most states are in Fiscal 2021 (July 2020-June 2021). 4/N

States adopted budgets for FY 2021 based on revenue and expenditure projections that took place in the fall-winter of 2019-20, that were then proposed to state legislatures in winter-spring of 2020 and adopted in most states in summer of 2020. 5/N

Here's @NASBO's super helpful report on state budget processes: 6/N

https://higherlogicdownload.s3.amazonaws.com/NASBO/9d2d2db1-c943-4f1b-b750-0fca152d64c2/UploadedImages/Budget%20Processess/2015_Budget_Processes_-_S.pdf

According to @NASBO, in the last quarter of fiscal 2020 state revenues decreased enough to wipe out all of the previous gains from the first three quarters of 2020. 7/N
https://www.nasbo.org/blogs/shelby-kerns1/2020/09/08/state-revenues-decline-for-first-time-since-the-gr

States made use of a strong fiscal position, existing reserves and emergency funds, and the federal CARES act to cover the initial costs imposed by the COVID crisis, which may get them part of the way through FY 21. States are out of options for FY 22. 8/N

There are big decisions to be made about fiscal year 2022. These start with the budget offices sending out guidance to state agencies about how to structure their requests for funding. 9/N

State agencies, including higher education, submit their budget requests based on this guidance. Higher education officials in the states are now preparing or may have even submitted their budget requests for FY 22. 10/N

The governor's budget office will adapt these requests in their proposed budgets, and the legislature will make decisions about budgets in the winter-spring of 2021 which will be adopted in summer of 2021. 11/N

State budget agency guidance documents set the scene for budget requests. While the actual policy will be determined by the governor and the legislature, a good budget office will let agencies know what to expect. 12/N

Washington state's Office of Financial Management guidance to state agencies says: "forecasted revenue growth will not meet current demands on the state’s resources": 13/N

https://www.ofm.wa.gov/sites/default/files/public/budget/instructions/operating/2021-23/2021-23OperBudInst.pdf

Washington state's budget guidance is just generally brutal, requesting that many agencies plan for cuts of 15%: 14/N

https://www.ofm.wa.gov/sites/default/files/public/budget/instructions/operating/2021-23/2021-23OperBudInst.pdf

Ohio's Office of Budget and Management is asking for two types of requests, one that includes a 10% reduction in costs, another that's the minimum required to continue offering current services. 15/N

https://archives.obm.ohio.gov/Files/Budget_and_Planning/Operating_Budget/Fiscal_Years_2022-2023/Guidance/Operating_Budget_Guidance_FY-2022-23-final.pdf

Last week, Illinois' budget director told its agencies to prepare for 10% cuts in FY 2022. Gov. Pritzker called this a "nightmare scenario": 16/N

https://www.chicagotribune.com/coronavirus/ct-coronavirus-illinois-jb-pritzker-budget-cuts-20200915-277jojsqfzgihhonvci2ublbza-story.html

Connecticut agencies have been instructed to prepare for at least a 10% reduction: 17/N

https://portal.ct.gov/-/media/OPM/Budget/2022_2023_Biennial_Budget/Policy-Letter---Secretary-McCaw---FY22-FY23-Biennial-Budget.pdf

Minnesota agencies have been warned that the government faces a 9% shortfall for the FY22/23 biennium 18/N:

https://mn.gov/mmb-stat/documents/budget/budget-instructions/fy2022-23/2022-23-governors-budget-request-instructions.pdf

These kinds of requested cuts are particularly alarming as higher education tends to receive bigger budget cuts than other agencies during recessions. The FY 22 cuts put into place could be larger than the ones that higher education leaders are being asked to plan for. 19/N

It seems very unlikely that the states will be able to fund higher education at a level to maintain, let alone increase access without action by the federal government. I wrote about this for @ThirdWayEDU : 20/END https://www.thirdway.org/report/throwing-out-the-recession-playbook-for-higher-education-the-need-for-joint-federal-state-policy-in-the-wake-of-covid-19