Alright, here's a little Suffolk County, NY analysis for you. The topic: General population risk versus nursing home risk.

Overall, there have been 2,012 deaths attributed to COVID in Suffolk County (populations ~1.48 million)

Of those 2,012 deaths, 832 have taken place in a nursing home/acute care facility.

SOURCE (NYS Department of Health): https://www.health.ny.gov/statistics/diseases/covid-19/fatalities_nursing_home_acf.pdf

Now, NYS counts a death as a nursing home/ACF death ONLY if the death occurred in the nursing home/ACF. So if a nursing home patients died en route to the hospital or in the hospital, they're not a nursing home death.

So pretty likely that 832 is an undercount.

So 41% of all Suffolk deaths took place IN nursing homes/ACF. Obviously, more nursing home/ACF patients died of it than that.

BUT, if we only take that 832 undercount number and remove it from the total, we get 1,180 "general population" deaths.

Which, again, thanks to @NYGovCuomo's very misleading counting, is not a true reflection of the general population fatalities. Even still, take 1,180 and divide by 433,960 (which is the number --29.3% -- that http://covid19-projections.com  says has been infected in Suffolk).

That assumes a conservative 40% asymptomatic cases. Want to know what you get for an infection rate for the general population? 0.27%. That's almost exactly what the CDC's "best guess" was months ago (0.26).

As we know, general IFRs are ill-advised, particularly for COVID, since all risks with this disease increase with ascending age.

So the IFR for the sub-65 general population? Basically zero. For general population 65+, it's probably in line with the seasonal flu.

Again, this is a suburb of the hardest hit municipality in the country, which has tens of thousands of people that commute to and from NYC on mass transit every single day.

So if you hear or read someone say, "Oh, an age-targeted strategy that @SWAtlasHoover or @MartinKulldorff are advocating for is akin to MURDER," just know they're willfully ignorant and/or virtue signaling to score political points.

We knew this in Feb, we lost sight of it in the midst of the Northeast peak, but now that we're squarely in false-positive/legacy death harvesting territory, we need re-align with the facts.

Shield the vulnerable, let the health build community immunity. Like it always has been.

END THREAD

TL;DR? Just like everywhere, almost half the COVID deaths in a major suburb of NYC are in nursing homes/ACF, that number is an undercount, and the general population doesn't have much to fear.