I don’t know about you, but I’m on pins and needles over the Pact on Migration & Asylum coming out tomorrow. The European Commission has kept the draft under wraps, but they seem awfully excited about it. Thread 1/X

I’m a little worried though. Starting with the imagery. We’ve gone From Fortress Europe to Heavily Guarded House. Commissioner Schinas said the proposal is like a 3-story house. https://euobserver.com/migration/149417 2/X

On the 1st floor deals with countries like Turkey & Libya block the stairs. If you manage to get to the 2nd floor, Frontex is there to march you back outside. If you make it to the 3rd floor you’ll probably be locked in a closet until Mandatory Solidarity comes to say hi. 3/X

This thread focuses on just some of the worrying proposals we might see in tomorrow's Pact 4/X

Mandatory border screening. This is a terrible idea dressed up as efficiency. It would probably lead to bad, rushed decisions with a bias towards rejection and increase, rather than alleviate, the responsibilities of countries like Italy and Greece on EU external borders. 5/X

Accelerated border procedures tend to undermine fair and efficient review of asylum claims, and there's a very real risk that this proposal means more people will be detained for longer periods of time at EU borders. 6/X

Just think Moria, where for years 1000s of people were contained & denied their rights & dignity. After the fire, Commission Prez von der Leyen said “No more Morias” but there's already a new tent compound on Lesbos, and border screening could mean more along EU borders. 7/X

The fantasy of quick border procedures is the idea of rapid returns. That was behind the EU-Turkey deal & I think we all know that didn’t quite work out. The Pact will likely focus on returns, even though it's a distraction from the key components of good migration policy 8/X

Then there’s Gordian Knot of how to share responsibility fairly among EU countries. It’s great if we can finally get rid of the Dublin regulation that demands more of countries on EU borders. It’s just really unclear what “mandatory solidarity” actually means. 9/X

In sum, I'm a little worried. But I'll summon some optimism later on with thoughts about all the good things the Pact could (and should) propose...10/10