2) today. They discussed the SCOTUS candidates. Robert Barnes did a fantastic job explaining the difference between Amy Corey Barrett and Lagoa. He thinks Barbara Lagoa would be easily confirmed given the fact that 32 Democrats recently voted for her to be confirmed in the 11th
3) Circuit. He described a lot of baggage that ACB carries from her upbringing in the Deep South to some of her most recent rulings.

Democrats would love ACB to be chosen because of her religious beliefs. It would put Roe v. Wade at the forefront possibly alienating Karens that
4) want abortion to be tamed but not overturned. Lagoa is the American dream. Comes from a middle class family and has 7 children. Democrats will have a really difficult time going after her because of the recent votes (see above) and the fact that she is a Cuban Latina.
5) Florida would be done! It will also play well in states like AZ, TX and NV that have a high number of Hispanic voters. The press would also have a difficult time going after her given her life story of the family escaping Cuba.

Lagoa is a Catholic as well. Lagoa would allow
6) the President to win Florida by 3 to 5 points.

The Biden +6 in the Epoch Poll is with RVs. That is if all of them voted. When LV was used, it was a dead heat. Robert shared that he looks closely at counties like MaCombs and Monroe in MI. He was surprised that Trump has
7) increased his margins by a few points in both counties compared to 2016 vote share. He also looks at Erie and Bucks in PA. The President won Erie by 2 in 2016. He is currently up +13 in the latest poll. He lost Bucks by 2 but is currently up +2 in Bucks.

Richard said that
8) Robert is going to be right about St. Louis county in
MN. HRC won it by 12 but PDJT could win it by double digits (Deluth is located in this county).

Robert spoke about the Protestant Norwegians that are found in WI & MN as well as other Battleground States in the Midwest.
9) Other than 1960, they always vote Democrat. That is not going to be the case this time around. They are very anti war.

Robert shared that the President won the 6 Battleground states by 2-2.5 in 2016. He sees that number doubling in 2020. He sees PDJT winning it by 5.
10) This is all based on the voter enthusiasm gap between our President and Biden. More than half of Biden’s voters are voting for him because they hate Trump. Over 80%+ of the President’s voters are voting for him because they want to.

The extremely enthusiastic gap is +8 for
11) PDJT.

Many of those anti Trump voters will not vote. Larry is going to be proven right about the youth vote. They bought only see it being 14% of the electorate not the 30%+ that the BS polls are saying.

Both don’t see more than 137- 145 million people voting which would
12) increase from 2016 based on normal expansion due to more people reaching 18 and fewer people dying over those 4 years. That is not good for Biden.

Coronavirus is continuing to go down as the top issue with each passing day. That is terrible for Biden because they will all
13) vote for him.

The death of RBG will damage Coronavirus because it will consume the news and people’s attention.

Robert believes a lot of people are banking their vote with someone else fearing telling the pollster. They will break heavily to the President. Richard
14) confirmed that the share was BIG for the President. 6 out of 8 undecided will break for PDJT.

Richard believes the men vote could equal the vote share of women this time around. Working class men are the most enthusiastic voter.
15) Robert Barnes says he would bet PDJT in MI, IA, WI, PA, OH, MN, AZ & FL and if they could change the election rules from counting for 2 weeks in NV, he would bet Trump especially if it is at 3:1 odds.

He also thinks Collins wins in Maine and the Republicans hold the Senate.
16) Richard Baris says Tillis is a little vulnerable because of the Mueller fiasco. Robert is betting on Tillis and Ernst. He likes the odds and will bet James. He will not be betting Gardner or McSally.

He likes the House flipping at 3:1 odds. He will be doing more research on
17) the House. They both talked about removing the Green candidate that will actually hurt down ballot Democrats because the Green voter will not show up in WI and PA to vote.

They discussed the mail in ballots and their concerns about ballot harvesting and ballot stuffing.

The problem for the Democrats is the fact that all 4 states MN, MI, PA and WI will NOT mail ballots to all registered voters. You have to apply either
19) Online or by mail to get a ballot. Big difference compared to NV, VT, NJ, CA and the 5 states that vote by mail. Here is the process in all 4 states:

Since writing this their have been court decisions in PA, MI and WI extending the counting of votes. However the procedures
20) throughout the thread remain the same in. https://twitter.com/baba9773/status/1308232948202823695
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