What China does over the next five years will have by far the biggest impact on our ability to live within the world's carbon budget.

China's greenhouse emissions are now greater than those of Europe and the U.S. put together.
How much weight? Well, if it installs solar and wind capacities in line with this analysis by brokerage Industrial Securities and they run at the same capacity factors as current facilities, China is at peak coal now:

That's in spite of 250GW of new coal plants under development per this June report by @globalenergymon https://globalenergymonitor.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/China-coal-plant-brief-June-2020v2.pdf -- more coal capacity than you'll find in the entire U.S. or Indian power systems.
This assumes that grid connections are available (curtailment of renewables a few years back was largely a problem of a lack of transmission lines) and that renewables zero marginal costs mean they're the first-run power source.
It's also not accounting for time-of-day issues. Fossil fuel plants would switch off during the day and the summer and move to load-following in the evening peak period, at night and in winter, as we see in other countries.
This isn't enough on its own. But "China puts through a coal-heavy five-year plan" is one of the things that's kept me up at night in recent months, so evidence that this issue may be coming off the table is very welcome. (ends)
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