It's important that the media comment within their realm of expertise, and not mislead the public. A misleading thread critiquing govt predictions around the COVID-19 pandemic without a real understanding of how exponential spread works, and why mitigatory measures are needed. https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1308003044521631745

The govt has modelled spread if current transmission rates continue (doubling every 7 days) - this scenario is entirely plausible if nothing is changed (R remains the same as it is now). It is important that we know what the prediction is - this tells us we need to intervene.

The R value calculated by SAGE may not reflect current rates of growth seen, as this is based on data on deaths, and there is a 2-3 wk lag in inferring R, as the govt website clearly explains. R inferred on case numbers is likely to be higher (but less reliable).

We know that exponential growth occurs at a steady state with infectious diseases until one of two things happen: 1. Interventions that reduce the rate of growth (R), or 2. The susceptible population reduces, and gets exhausted, so fewer people are available to infect.

We know that 2. isn't happening very quickly. Serology studies suggest ~8% of the UK population (with regional differences) have been infected - and even these may not have long-term immunity, so reducing no.s of susceptible individuals are unlikely to stem outbreak for a while.

So, the only way to control exponential spread at the current rate is non-pharmaceutical interventions - whether this means local restrictions (e.g. restrictions on pubs, restaurants, gatherings), mask use, aggressive and rapid testing, tracing and isolating.

It makes no sense to compare the UK predicted exponential growth with those in other countries- it was clearly stated in the briefing today that the predicted growth is what would happen in a scenario no interventions were put in place.

Yet, @EdConwaySky compares this to countries where increasing restrictions have been applied for several weeks. This isn't a fair comparison. If anything, this really makes the case that restrictions can stem exponential spread as they have done in other European countries.

I'm really tired of the media spreading misleading narratives, without any understanding of the epidemiology of COVID-19, and how transmission works. This is hugely damaging & undermines public trust. The response to any pandemic is collective, and how we communicate is important