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While the pundit class of BC is concerned with the dangers posed by an election, what does the science actually tell us?
TL;DR: The risks are minimal, especially when transmission is relatively low (as it is in BC).
#BCpoli #cdnpoli #bcelxn
TL;DR: The risks are minimal, especially when transmission is relatively low (as it is in BC).
#BCpoli #cdnpoli #bcelxn
France held municipal and local elections in March and then again in June. A few studies have looked at how COVID 19 impacted them.
One study found no relationship between COVID-19 spread and turnout, in either direction. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.14.20090100v1
One study found no relationship between COVID-19 spread and turnout, in either direction. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.14.20090100v1
Another found that where transmission was very high and uncontrolled, there was an increase in hospitalizations as a result.
In places, like BC, with only a handful of hospitalizations and minimal cases, the election had no effect on spread. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.24.20138990v1
In places, like BC, with only a handful of hospitalizations and minimal cases, the election had no effect on spread. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.24.20138990v1
Another study also looked at whether candidates (i.e. those engaged in high risk activity because of the election campaign) faced increase risk.
They found that candidates were at no greater risk of death because of the election.
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3635730
They found that candidates were at no greater risk of death because of the election.
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3635730
What about closer to home? In the US, the Wisconsin primaries received a lot of attention and criticism. Did they spread COVID?
The evidence is mixed. One study finds that that compared to the rest of the US, relative risk of COVID actually dropped in Wisconsin following the election, when we might have expected them to rise. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.23.20074575v1
Within Wisconsin, though, that drop does seem to depend on turnout. Higher turnout was associated with higher spread in another study, even if that spread was lower than the rest of the US was experiencing.
https://www.nber.org/papers/w27187
https://www.nber.org/papers/w27187
Finally some state-level comparative evidence provides similar results, suggesting maybe a small risk though potentially no risk to elections. Across three states, only one experienced a significant increase in transmission associated with an election. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1047279720302088
The broad point here is that assuming an election will be dangerous is an assumption, and one that can be tested based on ample evidence elsewhere.
We can, absolutely, have safe elections in BC right now, we just need to give Elections BC the resources to do it.
We can, absolutely, have safe elections in BC right now, we just need to give Elections BC the resources to do it.
Especially if we encourage voting by mail, voting early, and provide the PPE needed for election workers and those who want or need to vote in person!
