Read on Twitter
1) Had a few people ask today what I think about Heneghan & co& #39;s narrative that the risks of COVID-19 have been overhyped & we should aim to avoid all adverse impacts on the less vulnerable https://twitter.com/carlheneghan/status/1308041538463772673?s=20">https://twitter.com/carlheneg...
Some thoughts (from my perspective as a public health registrar)
Some thoughts (from my perspective as a public health registrar)
2) They present no evidence to demonstrate that the cure has been & #39;worse& #39; than the disease. Of course measures should be targeted wherever possible, and we should absolutely strengthen Test & Trace, but the wider impacts have been worst where countries were most lax (see 12)
3) Heneghan& #39;s & #39;false positive tests& #39; argument is both misleading and besides the point, especially given the clearly rising proportion of tests that are positive & COVID-related healthcare use is also increasing- see https://twitter.com/ADMBriggs/status/1307800859091312641?s=20">https://twitter.com/ADMBriggs...
4) Hospital and ITU admissions are already starting to increase (despite cases so far mainly being in younger adults), albeit more slowly than in March due to social distancing - https://twitter.com/ADMBriggs/status/1307800850862088193?s=20">https://twitter.com/ADMBriggs... & there will likely be ↑ deaths due to these ↑ case #s within weeks
5) We aren& #39;t islands, and in taking risks because we consider ourselves & #39;low-risk& #39;, we can& #39;t help but create risk for others - eloquently put by @CMO_England this morning - https://twitter.com/OutbreakJake/status/1307989076004438021?s=20">https://twitter.com/OutbreakJ...
6) & #39;Throwing protective rings& #39; etc sounds easy, but we know that we can& #39;t effectively protect vulnerable people when community transmission is high - we& #39;re too connected & interdependent. UK tried in the first wave, and it went badly, leading to 1000s of deaths in care homes.
7) the recent increase is already starting to manifest amongst >80s https://twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1307609224495722503?s=20
Probably">https://twitter.com/Dr_D_Robe... through a mixture of cafes/restaurants/pubs, family meet-ups, multi-gen. homes, carers & healthcare workers - who UK seems unlikely to provide w/ separate accommodation/childcare
Probably">https://twitter.com/Dr_D_Robe... through a mixture of cafes/restaurants/pubs, family meet-ups, multi-gen. homes, carers & healthcare workers - who UK seems unlikely to provide w/ separate accommodation/childcare
8) On the question of COVID& #39;s impacts being over-hyped (& linked theories like 80% not susceptible before COVID hit etc), for a forensic dissection of some of Ivor Cummins& #39; recent pseudoscience along similar lines, see https://twitter.com/juniordrblog/status/1305861383607771137?s=20">https://twitter.com/juniordrb... from the excellent @juniordrblog
9) COVID& #39;s long-term consequences are real and unpleasant. I& #39;m young-ish and v. unlikely to die from it if I contract it, but - just like these scientists - I definitely don& #39;t want it, it& #39;s not always just like a cold or flu https://twitter.com/devisridhar/status/1307601884933484544?s=20">https://twitter.com/devisridh...
10) Evidence from Novus suggests that ~150,000 people in Sweden had symptoms for >10 weeks ( https://novus.se/novus-coronastatus/).">https://novus.se/novus-cor... I& #39;ve seen this too: someone close to me developed blood clots in their lungs after recovery, & a healthy, early 30s friend struggled to work for months afterwards
11) decisive & effective action to reduce prevalence is economically smarter than half-hearted/inadequate or too-slow action (shorter restrictions & econ. impacts will happen irrespective of the policy decisions if ppl feel unsafe, & they& #39;ll feel less safe if prevalence is high)
12) The fact that there isn& #39;t a health/economy trade-off is pretty clear from the international picture to date - for an international, data-focused view that avoids the common cherry-picking there seems to be a *lot* of going on, see https://ourworldindata.org/covid-health-economy">https://ourworldindata.org/covid-hea...
13) calling for & #39;herd immunity& #39; through viral spread, for a virus that kills >10% of the most vulnerable groups& #39; members, is inherently ableist and ageist. By demanding more freedom for the youngest & fittest, we take more freedom from the most vulnerable, & sometimes their lives
14) I recognise that people feel scared and/or angry and/or frustrated, and we 100% need better policies to protect and support people and their livelihoods, and to enable us to do the things that matter to us, safely. Driving prevalence down is a *key* way to do that.
*BUT*
*BUT*
15) sacrificing tens, potentially hundreds, of thousands of other people& #39;s lives, (and, often, the lives of poorer people and people of colour) is NOT an ethically acceptable way to address those concerns & challenges - https://twitter.com/GabrielScally/status/1307975178580828162?s=20">https://twitter.com/GabrielSc...
