If pubs really are going to be the focus of a new Covid crackdown, including a 10pm curfew, the industry is going to feel that's very unfair.

Here's why:-

[THREAD]

Figures from Public Health England show that there were 729 ARIs (acute respiratory infection) incidents in the week to 13 September that resulted in at least one positive lab test for Covid-19.

45% were in care homes
21% in education settings
18% in the workplace
8% "other"

For food outlets (including pubs), the figure was 5%. So people in hospitality feel the industry is an easy target.

Worst of all, they feel that the idea their venues present a danger isn't back up by the science. As well as the PHE figures, some point to a Swiss study...

...that suggests 27.1% of infection is in households, 1.9% in nightclubs, and 1.6 % in bars.

And all this comes on top of the feeling that the sector is already in dire straits, due to high business rates and greedy landlords squeezing hard-pressed businesses for rents.

Add into that the pressure faced by wet-led pubs (community boozers, basically) that didn't really benefit from a VAT cut on food, or Eat Out To Help Out.

Then there's the broken "beer tie" model, but that's a treatise in itself.

Whichever way you look at it, pubs will be at war with this government if it all shakes out the way it seems. The rest of the hospitality sector won't be too far behind.

I'll add one more thing to this. The head of the Night Time Industries Association, Michael Kill, pointed out to me recently that a 10pm curfew doesn't necessarily mean people going home to bed.

It means going on to house parties/raves. Where there aren't controls in place.

However, @thebeernut points me to this very good thread that suggests the data on ARIs isn't a good indicator of where infections are actually occurring. Very much worth a read, countering what the industry is saying. https://twitter.com/President_MU/status/1306908075161518081

BUT

Public Health England say that ARIs are based on two or more people whose infection is traced to the same setting.

That would suggest a more robust link between their illness and the setting listed in the PHE data.