The Government's chief medical and scientific officers made it clear that the prospect of 49,000 Covid cases /day by mid-October was not a prediction but an extrapolation. Even so, it's the scary figure they want us to take away from their presentation.
Much of the media has duly obliged. But Whitty/Vallance did not dwell on the presumptions behind that 49,000 stat: that cases are doubling every 7 days; and that they will continue to double every 7 days til mid-October. However ...
On the latest stats, cases are not doubling every 7 days. On Sept 13 there were 3,330 new cases; on Sept 20 there were 3,889. As for doubling every 7 days in the future, that remains to be seen. But government seems to think we're about 2/3 weeks behind France.
If we followed the French trajectory -- 9,406 cases Sept 11, 13,215 Sept 18 -- we could end up around new 10,000 cases/day by mid-October. But not 49,000. France has not reverted to a national lockdown despite the recent spike in cases.
France's 7-day moving fatality average has gone from 17 to 53 thru September. UK has gone from 8 to 19.
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