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My research found “law & order” helped Nixon win in 1968 yet today Trump’s effort is falling flat. How did Trump inherit 50 years of GOP advantage and then squander it? @ThePlumLineGS offers an astute insight: order is not “binary.” 
1/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/09/18/trumps-biggest-argument-is-failing-him-new-polls-explain-why/
1/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/09/18/trumps-biggest-argument-is-failing-him-new-polls-explain-why/
In a key red-leaning state like Arizona, @ThePlumLineGS notes “Biden is trusted over Trump to handle ‘law & order‘ by 51% to 45%.” A six point spread might not seem large but, for half-a-century, the GOP has owned “law & order.” What’s different now? 2/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/09/18/trumps-biggest-argument-is-failing-him-new-polls-explain-why/
Compare the ways Nixon and Trump talk about order. Nixon’s 1968 campaign ad “law & order” uses jarring audio and images but speaks in terms of balancing rights and safety. 3/
Nixon ad: “Dissent is a necessary ingredient of change. But in a system that provides for peaceful change, there is no cause that justifies resort to violence. Let us recognize that the first civil right of every American is to be free from domestic violence…” 4/
Contrast Nixon’s recognition of speech rights to Trump’s celebration of state violence against a reporter: “Wasn’t it really a beautiful sight? It’s called law and order.” 5/ https://twitter.com/davidgura/status/1307318498205425665
While Trump’s base may love his style, a new study from @zeitzoff finds in US and Ukraine “the public has an aversion to violent rhetoric and punishes politicians who use it.” 6/ https://www.zeitzoff.com/uploads/2/2/4/1/22413724/zeitzoff_nastystyle_violentrhetoric_draft_feb2020.pdf
Violent rhetoric “can still be effective in grabbing attention and signaling toughness” but Trump’s repeated endorsements of unbridled state repression do not offer the reassurance he thinks. See @zeitzoff’s thread for more. 7/ https://twitter.com/zeitzoff/status/1197930492852617221
As @jonathanchait highlights, Trump doesn’t just use violent rhetoric. Trump’s photo-op at Lafayette Square “set off a national backlash” following the televised “beating and teargassing [of] peaceful demonstrators.” 8/ https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/09/trump-police-law-and-order-george-floyd-protest-riots-losing-biden.html
In 1968, when asked to rate candidates on an urban unrest scale from “correct poverty” to “use all available force,” subjects rated Nixon as a moderate, between liberal Hubert Humphrey and segregationist George Wallace. 9/ https://twitter.com/owasow/status/1302315126977159170
Returning to @ThePlumLineGS’s insight, Nixon’s rhetoric strategically captured the center by calling for “law & order” while recognizing rights. Trump’s “binary” rhetoric promises only repression or ”chaos” with little concern for trade-offs and no regard for civil rights. 10/
Trump seems unable to comprehend that for many Americans, an out-of-control state is also a threat to order. As @jonathanchait writes of US protests past and present, most “Americans recoil from one-sided violence against innocent targets.” 11/ https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/09/trump-police-law-and-order-george-floyd-protest-riots-losing-biden.html
Surveys in US & world suggest ~30% of people prefer a strongman leader. To Trump’s credit, he’s built a loyal base of ~40%. Polls, though, show majorities more concerned about “racism” than ”riots” & Trump has bumped up against what we might call a “tear gasser’s ceiling.” 12/
In 2020, as in 1968, @ThePlumLineGS’ analysis suggests supporting repression & opposing rights is an unlikely path to a majority. Trump’s “law & order” campaign isn’t failing because he’s copying Nixon, it’s failing because he’s copying George Wallace. fin https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/09/18/trumps-biggest-argument-is-failing-him-new-polls-explain-why/
For an overview of my research on protests, see: https://twitter.com/owasow/status/1265709670892580869
A key question in both the 1960s and now is does the news use narratives that frame protest coverage more in terms of “rights” or “riots”? https://twitter.com/owasow/status/1269357041316818945
