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The briefing showed recent trends in France & Spain & then showed that the UK would have 49k cases per day if they doubled every week.
49k per day is a rate of 73.5 / 100k, i.e. over 3 times current rate in Spain, nearly 6 times France.
Why did they present that scenario?
49k per day is a rate of 73.5 / 100k, i.e. over 3 times current rate in Spain, nearly 6 times France.
Why did they present that scenario?
If you want to compare with France & Spain, why wouldn't you use their doubling time which is every 3 weeks, not every week?
That would indicate closer to 7-8k cases per day by mid-October.
That would indicate closer to 7-8k cases per day by mid-October.
Also, why didn't @CMO_England & @uksciencechief present the UK data using the rate per 100k like they did for France/Spain?
That would make it easier for politicians, journalists & the public to compare & then to judge whether the *what if* scenario passes the smell test.
That would make it easier for politicians, journalists & the public to compare & then to judge whether the *what if* scenario passes the smell test.
I would take a very dim view if my UG students submitted a report like this.
Do @CMO_England and @uksciencechief really think it is acceptable to present data in this way?
Do @CMO_England and @uksciencechief really think it is acceptable to present data in this way?
The slides are here if you want to check them out for yourselves: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/919548/20200921_Briefing.pdf
