Meta-Post on the Calamitous Consequences of #PopulationControlLaw if Implemented in India: #Thread

GOI & many Indians are mistaken to think that #PopulationControlBill's the magic-wand to solve demographic snag, #ClimateChange & #poverty by reduced #population footprint.

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1. The #PopulationRegulationBill:

First the #PopulationControlAct itself. It was introduced in Rajya Sabha in July 2019 with "2-child policy per couple." The Bill's presented with the associated rewards for adherence & also penalties for violation.

Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_Control_Bill,_2019
2. The Govt's locus-standi on #PopulationControl:

The GOI has already built a narrative regarding #PopulationControlAct. Popular figures speak of it as the need of the hour. Many back it, articles have been written & a perception's created leading to implementation of the Bill.
3. The Benefits of #PopulationControl:

A. Govt can distribute limited resources more evenly.
B. More employment opportunities for the populace.
C. Poverty reduction.
D. Controlling climate change.
E. Population growth & climate change combined threatens nation's food security.
4. The Divided Camps:

Despite the intrinsic advantages of #PopulationControlLaw, there exists a vociferous minority who are antagonistic towards the proposed implementation of the aforesaid Bill. Without further ado, let’s outline the disadvantages of the #PopulationControlBill.
5. The Skewed Female-Male Ratio:

Even without #populationcontrol, India’s #GenderImbalance stat skewed downwards as shown:
> 2011: 939 F per 1000 M
> 2021: 904 F per 1000 M
> 2031: 898 F per 1000 M

Govt study reckons that this asymmetrical #sexratio will degrade even further!!
6. The Gender Imbalance Reasons:

The skewed ratio is primarily because of the fact that many families desire male-offsprings. There are both cultural and practical reason behind this reasoning. As a result, there are more M than F, and this has disastrous impact on the society.
7. The Disastrous Outcomes of #PopulationControl (Part-I):

A. #GenderImbalance -

Pop control creates/amplifies skewed F:M ratio which has its own deadly impact like hypergamy, unable to find marriage partner, unmated men turning to crime or homosexuality, female trafficking.
8. The Disastrous Outcomes (Pt-II):

B. #ShrinkingWorkforce-

Pop control always results in negative pop growth. Countries with negative pop rate like Germany, Italy & Japan require taxpayers to support an ageing population & negative pop growth also implies shrinking workforce.
9. CASE STUDY-1: #China (Pt-I)

Herein let's look how disastrous #CCP’s #PopulationControl has been:
> From 1979 #PRC implemented “One-child policy,” modified it in mid-1980s to allow rural parents a 2nd child if 1st was a daughter & finally in 2015 reverted to “Two-child limit.”
10. CASE STUDY-1: #China (Pt-II)

The TFR fell as follows:
> 5.7 -From 1970, citizens were required to marry at later ages and many were limited to have only 2 children.
> 2.9 -Implementation of One-child policy (1979)
> 1.66 -Abolishment of One-child policy (2015)
> 1.69 -2020
11. CASE STUDY-1: #China (Pt-III)

> China ruthlessly implemented the birth limits & provincial governments could, and did, require the use of contraception, abortion, and sterilization to ensure compliance, and imposed enormous fines for violations.
> Thus, TFR fell drastically.
12. CASE STUDY-1: #China (Pt-IV)

Though the term #OCP- #OneChildPolicy is a "misnomer" since for 3 decades of the 36 years that it existed (1979–2015), about half of all parents were allowed to have a second child, still CCP faces shrinking workforce & ageing population problems.
13. CASE STUDY-1: #China (Pt-V)

The #CCP repealed #OCP in 2015, but TFR in China is nowhere near pre-OCP levels.
The 3 reasons are:
> High cost of raising a child.
> Childbearing women today were themselves born during a period of demographic contraction.
> Sexism in workplace.
14. CASE STUDY-1: #China (Pt-VI)

Finally, due to #PopulationControl, there is gender imbalance. Can you even begin to comprehend living in a society where 1 in every 4 adult men will never be married, & not by choice? This changes the social & cultural dynamics of China forever.
15. Myths of #PopulationControl Benefits:

The advocates of #PopulationControlBill harps on -

A. #ClimateChange
B. #PovertyAlleviation (Poverty Reduction) &
C. Preservation of the #Demographic status-quo

as key factors to introduce such a regulatory measure. Let’s tackle them.
17. Myth 2 - #PovertyAlleviation:

#Fact: There is no evidence that population growth impedes economic growth.

Case study: Roberto De Vera, a renowned economist, states that from 1961-2000, as Philippine pop increased almost 3 times, poverty decreased from 59% to 34%.
18. Myth 3 - #PopulationExplosion & Restoring #DemographicImbalance: (Pt-I)

A. #PopulationExplosion:
It's one of the reasons many want to enable #PopulationControlAct. But fact is India has witnessed a steady decline in its pop growth rate over the last four decades (1971–2011).
19. Myth 3 - #PopulationExplosion: (Pt-II)

B. Negative Growth Rate:
Thus, contemporary India has no ‘population explosion’ & with TFR has come down to 2.3 in 2014, just 0.2 points away from "replacement level" of 2.1, #PopulationControlAct is a daft idea that serves no purpose.
20. Myth 3 - #PopulationExplosion: (Pt-III)

C. Shrinking Workforce:
With negative pop growth rate, Indian Govt should rather be concerned with shrinking workforce, less number of tax-payers & increased share of senior citizens as pop pyramid declines from expansive to bulging.
22. Myth 3 - Restoring #DemographicImbalance: (Pt-V)

E. Muslim Pop Percentage is Increasing:
No matter how much Leftist demographers try to convince Hindus that demographic shift is NOT occurring, Mathematics does NOT lie.

>Hindus will be reduced to "minority" in India one day.
23. Myth 3 - #DemographicImbalance: (Pt-VI)

F. Hindu–Muslim fertility differentials at the state level:

The 2011 Indian Census data show a higher growth rate of Muslim population compared to Hindu population.
H TFR: 2.1
M TFR: 2.7

>This is the reason why M pop % is increasing.
24. Myth 3 - #DemographicImbalance: (Pt-VII)

F. TFR differentials:
Another point is both socio-economic factors & religion influence India's fertility rate & pop growth. States that are more developed, have a higher per-capita income & better access to healthcare have lower TFR.
25. CASE STUDY-2: #Israel Winning the #Demographic War (Pt-I)

As India takes step backward along #CCP's lines of #PopulationControl, let's review how successful Israeli policies have been.

>Israel is the only modern ‘Western’ nation with replacement birth rates with TFR of 3.1.
26. CASE STUDY-2: #Israel (Pt-II)

Unlike India:

> Israeli politicians have treated Jewish pop growth promotion as a central question in their research & policy-making.
> Non-Jewish pop growth is regarded as a threat to the Jewish demographic majority & to Israel's security.
27. CASE STUDY-2: #Israel (Pt-III)

The TFR spread among diff religious segments of Jews:
1. Haredim (Ultra-orthodox) TFR 7
2. Non-Haredim (Orthodox) TFR 4.2
3. Masortim (Traditional Religious) TFR 3
4. Traditional Not-so Religious TFR 2.6
5. Hiloni (Secular/Progressive) TFR 2.1
28. CASE STUDY-2: #Israel (Pt-IV)

>Muslims in Israel is 22% but in the last 16 years, Jewish births increased by 47.2% compared to just 7.5% increment among Arabs.
>In 2001, 2.18 Jewish babies were born for every Arab baby. In 2017 this figure has increased to 3.1 Jewish babies.
29. CASE STUDY-2: #Israel (Pt-V)

Outlined below are the reasons why Israel is winning the demographic war against Arabs.
Aside from Historical, Cultural & Societal pressures, Israeli Govt's subsidies to large Jewish families & pro-maternal policies drove the Jewish TFR upwards.
30. CASE STUDY-2: #Israel (Pt-VI)

Finally, the consequences of increased Jewish pop & lowering Arabs' pop is that Israeli Right-Wing politicians know that both time & demography is on their side. This is what a RW politician states to his LW colleagues:

(Pic courtesy: @Rjrasva)
31. Other Factors Affecting #Hindu TFR: (Pt-I)

Besides #PopulationControl, Hindu TFR problems are further compounded by 2 factors:

A. Late Marriage Bill- Fertility rate of women decreases with age. This Bill will def crash TFR below 2.1, as it happened in China between 1970-79.
32. Other Factors Affecting #Hindu TFR: (Pt-II)

B. Women's Career Aspirations:
A survey of Hindu women found that like men, they too have same professional goals. But unlike their Jewish counterparts, Hindu women preferred late marriages & have fewer kids. Thus TFR will go down.
33. Conclusions—The Impending Pitfalls: (Pt-I)

A. Hindu TFR hovers at 2.1 (RLoF) & represents AVERAGE value. Hence #TwoChildPolicy will force the upper TFR values to be lowered that will push avg TFR much less than 2.1. Thus the #PopulationControlAct is a suicidal legislation.
34. Conclusions—The Impending Pitfalls: (Pt-II)

B. India is NOT experiencing a #populationexplosion from Hindus, but problem of #overpopulation is only due to Muslims.
C. India is surrounded by hostile countries-Pak & China. Thus #populationcontrol for India is not advisable.
35. Conclusions: (Pt-III)

D. Unlike China, India is not one-party nation. So #PopulationControlAct may not be implemented by States that use Minorities for vote-bank politics. Ex-Instead of enforcing SC orders on mosque loudspeakers, MH served notice on @be_karishma for rioting!
36. Conclusions—The Impending Pitfalls: (Pt-IV)

E. After Assam Govt decided ppl having more than 2 kids are ineligible 4 Govt jobs, Badruddin Ajmal (AIUDF) said "Muslims will continue to produce more children despite law." Thus #PopulationControlLaw for Muslims is bound to fail.
37. Conclusions—The Impending Pitfalls: (Pt-V)

F. Since Muslim community is religiously motivated to produce more children-to gain demographic adv in few decades-cutting down Govt handouts won't have any effect. This is the dedication of their women to the cause of Gazwa-e-Hind.
38. Conclusions—Steps for Higher Hindu TFR: (Pt-I)

Hindu demography is rapidly collapsing due to following reasons:
> Lack of Govt vision & planning
> High-cost of child-raising
> Massive conversions
> Anti-maternal policies
> Woke ideas (Overpop, Global warming)
> DINK trend
39. Conclusions—Steps for Higher Hindu TFR: (Pt-II)

It's incumbent upon Hindutva Govt to realize that it's not just the high TFR of Muslims that's the problem but also the high TFR deficit vis-a-vis Hindus is. Thus, the focus has to be on bridging this TFR differential of 0.6.
40. Conclusions—Steps for Higher Hindu TFR: (Pt-III)

A. Govt Handouts:
Govt programs must provide subsides to poor & middle-class Hindus who have large families; Tax-breaks to rich Hindus having more kids. It's not just the poor but also urban middle & rich class must procreate.
41. Conclusions—Steps for Higher Hindu TFR: (Pt-IV)

B. Economics of Child-Raising:
Budding parents esp in urban areas looks at quality education, low living costs & affordable healthcare in deciding the family size & here, the Govt must offer the Hindus with subsidized rollouts.
42. Conclusions—Steps for Higher Hindu TFR: (Pt-V)

C. Late Marriages/Unwillingness to have kids:
The tendency to enjoy life, marry late & have less kids is a problem that must be tackled at the parental/community level & Hindu orgs must raise awareness & change their opinions.
43. Conclusions—Steps for Higher Hindu TFR: (Pt-VI)

D. Pro-Maternal Policies:
The Govt must establish the framework of pro-maternal policies so that a woman can balance her family & work-loads.
Where China & West failed, Israel is the case-study for working women having TFR>2.1.
44. Conclusions—Steps for Higher Hindu TFR: (Pt-VII)

E. Other Factors:
Illegal immigration, Hindu girls' Religious conversion & IRM to Abrahmic faiths must be halted. Abortion & Gay-marriages must be discouraged. These causes-though small-if stopped will also increase Hindu TFR.
45. Summary: (Pt-I)

A. Hindu TFR must be raised above Muslim TFR:

In this civilizational war, whoever controls the demographics holds the key to rule India. #PopulationControlLaw is incoming disaster for Hindu TFR. The goal is NOT to be at par with Muslim TFR but to surpass it.
46. Summary: (Pt-II)

B. Hindutva Govt Role-Must shun lazy shortcuts:

Any Hindu Govt that is not concerned with TFR differential, unwilling to economically help Hindu society to raise its TFR, considers work's done by passing a law in parliament is by default an Anti-Hindu Govt.
47. Summary: (Pt-III)

C. Hindu Societal Role-Not to shrug off responsibility:

Hindutva orgs must understand what's at stake & demand immediate action from Govt on behalf of Hindus for continued existence of India as Hindu-majority nation. Anti-Hindu TFR acts must be suppressed.
48. Summary: (Pt-IV)

D. Hindu Societal Role-To Inspire Individuals:

In a few decades, India will look like the West-"old and fading"-minus the development. Hindus must rediscover themselves as a society with a 'telos,' a purpose. And this is an area that needs intervention.
49. Summary: (Pt-V)

E. Individual Role-Procreate or Perish:

The developed world, incl USA, lacks a sense of purpose beyond personal gratification. For Dharma, we need to procreate. After all, "A Child without Parents is an Orphan; a Nation without Children is an Orphan People."
50. Summary: (Pt-VI)

F. Core view-It's Tough to Increase Population:

In China, for instance, even when 2-child policy was enabled, the birth-rates are nowhere climbing up, since it's tough to increase population. But again, there are policies.

(Pic courtesy: @Rjrasva)
51. Final Summary:

For 1400 yrs, Hinduism has been in perpetual decline & our history is "paranoia confirmed by events." No matter what, to sustain prevalent Hindu majority demography will require great collective effort. But then it’s true for all civilisational battles.

*END*
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