Vallence is being deeply and culpably misleading. Ignoring false positives which cuts right into his.Stating that the proportion of increased testing isn't of any concern but failing to provide the data which shows the rise to be tiny relative to the increase in February & March.
He then completely ignored T-cell immunity,about which there have been numerous studies suggesting that is up to 50%,with a huge impact on transmissibilty.He is a public official with public duties.Misleading the public is a serious matter, esp when the consequences are so grave.
Now the @CMO_England is misleading the public about exponential growth. There was no exponential growth in February or March. The growth tailed off until the infection rate peaked on around 16th March, regardless of government intervention.
This was the same trajectory as Sweden, which (of course) had no lockdown and didn't close schools for under 16s at any time.
Whitty now discussing 'population health'. Will he mention that flu and pneumonia now cause over 10 x as many deaths as those who have had a positive SARS-CoV-2 test within 28 days (many of course not dying from it)? No, he didn't.
Will he mention the impact of the lockdown and NHS closures on cancer checks and treatment? No, he didn't.
Neither take any questions. I'm not sure what they are afraid of, as most journalists have no intention of questioning them on the accuracy of the data they are presenting.
At the end, finally, he mentioned 'balancing risk'. Each officer has utterly failed to address the most significant ways in which this could be done: (a) by having accurate data about viral data (disgracefully ignoring the unanswered concerns about false positives);
(b) accurate and contextual data about the proportion of 'positives' relative to tests, which shows a tiny increase relative to February and March;
(c) a fair appraisal of the evidence that the previous lockdown had any effect on viral transmission, given that it came well after the infection peak (something even Whitty admitted at least may be the case to the House of Commons Health Committee in July);
And finally but at the heart of all these considerations (d) an accurate, detailed account of the exceptional harms to public health (which is their field) caused by the last lockdown; and a proper acknowledgement of the other consequences (which are not)...
...and that their advice on the virus and public health is only a part of the considerations that the politicians must make.
But it is grossly inappropriate for government advisers to be speaking like this to the public. They are not the government, they do not have responsibility and their advice is but one factor in any decisions that the government must take.
You can follow @Francis_Hoar.
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