The Whitty / Vallance briefing is under way. This is their key slide: modelling says if the virus’s current contagion trajectory continues, we will hit almost 50,000 new cases a day in 4 weeks time. Today we’re at 4,000.

Vallance: "50,000 cases a day will lead to a month later, by mid November, 200 deaths a day. We must not enter into this exponential growth".

Whitty suggests further restrictions might be necessary until March next year: "The seasons are against us. We should see this as a six month problem. Over the next six months, we have to realise collectively we have to take this very seriously".

Another big hint from Whitty for the need for more national intervention: "Sooner or later the chain will meet people who are vulnerable. You cannot take your own risk. You are taking a risk on behalf of everyone else. We have to see this collectively".

And finally a shard of sunlight – only 3 to 9 months to go. Vallance: “It’s possible that some vaccine could be available before the end of the year in small amounts. Much more likely we’ll see vaccines becoming available in the first half of next year”. So we’re half way thru.