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Cameroon: tomorrow (22/09), opposition marches will call for Biya to leave, despite the government's threats of violence.
This *could* be a watershed moment, I think.
Some fear that internet will be cut - which will make media coverage even scarcer.
A thread with my 2 cents.
This *could* be a watershed moment, I think.
Some fear that internet will be cut - which will make media coverage even scarcer.
A thread with my 2 cents.
The regime reacted very strongly to the planned marches.
All its organs have condemned them: the human rights commission, Ministry of Health, Interior Min, chiefs, media outlets...
Security forces are now very visible in Douala and Yaoundé.
Headlines: https://twitter.com/ReginaSondoM/status/1307901303931179009
All its organs have condemned them: the human rights commission, Ministry of Health, Interior Min, chiefs, media outlets...
Security forces are now very visible in Douala and Yaoundé.
Headlines: https://twitter.com/ReginaSondoM/status/1307901303931179009
Counter-marches by organisations of moto taximen, youth, chiefs, etc. have carried banners against "insurrection" and for democracy / peace. Many hold the iconic photo of a young Paul Biya.
Hard to know whether they represent public views or astroturf. https://twitter.com/anchunda_benly/status/1307284708603162624
Hard to know whether they represent public views or astroturf. https://twitter.com/anchunda_benly/status/1307284708603162624
Such calls for "peace" and threats of instability have underpinned Biya's presidency since its beginnings, and won him the support of the "international community."
See my article for @WPReview for a background on how he's maintained power with this: https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/insights/26205/the-old-don-t-let-go-36-years-of-rocky-stability-in-paul-biya-s-cameroon
See my article for @WPReview for a background on how he's maintained power with this: https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/insights/26205/the-old-don-t-let-go-36-years-of-rocky-stability-in-paul-biya-s-cameroon
The two main opposition parties appear to have set their differences/ego aside to march: the MRC of @KamtoOfficiel and the CPP of @KahWalla.
Some of their supporters have reportedly been arrested over the past few weeks.
Hard to know whether people will rally despite the risks.
Some of their supporters have reportedly been arrested over the past few weeks.
Hard to know whether people will rally despite the risks.
Kamto was in Biya's government from 1990s to 2012 when he created the MRC. It seems to be the largest opposition party now.
In 2018, Kamto said he won the presidential elections and was quickly arrested. After 9 months in jail, he was released by Biya. https://twitter.com/EmmanFre/status/1289081116134080513
In 2018, Kamto said he won the presidential elections and was quickly arrested. After 9 months in jail, he was released by Biya. https://twitter.com/EmmanFre/status/1289081116134080513
Both Kamto and Kah Walla and studied abroad.
In the 1990s, Kah Walla was in the main opposition party of that time (the SDF) which was born in the anglophone regions.
In 2011, she ran for the presidential elections at the head of the CPP, then boycotted the 2018 elections.
In the 1990s, Kah Walla was in the main opposition party of that time (the SDF) which was born in the anglophone regions.
In 2011, she ran for the presidential elections at the head of the CPP, then boycotted the 2018 elections.
Their ethnic backgrounds are also relevant, although seems they have both drawn support beyond their community.
Kamto is Bamiliké and francophone while Kah Walla is from the anglophone North West.
You can read more thoughts on what this means here: https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/cameroon-fault-lines-190725110520286.html
Kamto is Bamiliké and francophone while Kah Walla is from the anglophone North West.
You can read more thoughts on what this means here: https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/cameroon-fault-lines-190725110520286.html
Marches of the MRC and the CPP have nearly always been subjected to arrests and police violence.
Looking further back in time, in 2008, during the largest protests against Biya, over 100 people were reportedly killed by the police/army, many arrested.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Cameroonian_anti-government_protests
Looking further back in time, in 2008, during the largest protests against Biya, over 100 people were reportedly killed by the police/army, many arrested.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Cameroonian_anti-government_protests
Key questions for tomorrow:
-How many people will march despite the risks
-Will the army/police shoot/arrest protesters
-What's the long-term strategy of the opposition
-What will be the political impact beyond tomorrow
-How will France, UK, US, etc position themselves
Ends.
-How many people will march despite the risks
-Will the army/police shoot/arrest protesters
-What's the long-term strategy of the opposition
-What will be the political impact beyond tomorrow
-How will France, UK, US, etc position themselves
Ends.
