I want to spell out exactly why Republicans are in a political no-win scenario. To do that, let's go down each plausible branch of what might happen next. Tweet storm incoming! Let's start w/ Scenario 1: Trump nominates a judge who is confirmed before the election.

Democratic turnout skyrockets, likely costing the GOP the WH and Senate. Democratic voters and elected officials are outraged, ramping up pressure to end the filibuster / make DC and PR states / enlarge the SC. We get a permanently more liberal Senate.

Scenario 2: Trump's judge is confirmed after the election. See above, except Democratic turnout is even higher (to stop him/her) and outrage even higher if he/she is seated.

Scenario 3: Trump nominates a right-wing judge as a lame duck and McConnell tries to ram it through.

Even if there were 50 votes for that (and I doubt there are), Democratic retaliation becomes not a likelihood, but a certainty, and Democratic voters' outrage will be so high it will carry over to 2022.

But, you say, in all 3 scenarios, the GOP would have a 6-3 court.

That's the devil's fork. In policy terms, that would surely be worth a lot. But Republican Senators have shown w/ Trump that they don't really care about policy, they only care about keeping office. So what would that SC do? Likely overturn the ACA, gun control, and Roe.

Here's the thing. All 3 of those are _really popular_ and people care _a lot_ about them. Especially Roe. Overturning all 3 would so inflame Democrats - and even independents - that it would render the GOP irrelevant as a national party. Think CA. The 2022 Senate map is already

very favorable to Dems. Add in any of those, and it would be a bloodbath. For GOP Senators, confirming a right-wing judge would involve short-term political pain, leading to long-term political agony. And if the SC doesn't overturn Roe? Then Evangelical turnout drops as they

realize that the GOP doesn't actually care about them or their priorities. Which will also suck for GOP politicians who need sky-high Evangelical turnout to win.

Scenario 4: Trump nominates a judge and Republican Senators don't confirm. Now Dems are still highly motivated,

and Republican Senators have a disappointed base that is much less likely to turn out.

Finally, Scenario 5, Trump can just not nominate anyone, but that drives up Dem turnout again, weakening both his chances at re-election and of holding onto the Senate.

So the GOP has a no-win scenario. Every path ends in political problems, and some end in political disaster. The only way to avoid that is to use control of the SC to swing the election - as Trump just said he wanted, when he said he was counting on the courts to declare a victor

on Election Night. But that is only plausible if it's close, and all these scenarios make a close election less likely.

RBG's death was a tragedy. But it's not a reason for despair. We still have a job to do, and if we do it, we can still save this country.