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1/16 Reflect for a moment on strategies to deal with Covid-19.
In the short term there are three primary options.
1. “Take it on the chin”. Let the virus run.
2. Find the equilibrium point to keep virus incidence stable, neither rising or falling
3. Drive the virus down to zero
In the short term there are three primary options.
1. “Take it on the chin”. Let the virus run.
2. Find the equilibrium point to keep virus incidence stable, neither rising or falling
3. Drive the virus down to zero
2/16 Let’s look at each in turn.
The virus has a fatality rate somewhere between 0 and 10%, most likely around 2%, although currently running at 10.9% according to UK figures.
Letting the virus run would therefore be quite likely to result in 1.3million deaths, possibly more.
The virus has a fatality rate somewhere between 0 and 10%, most likely around 2%, although currently running at 10.9% according to UK figures.
Letting the virus run would therefore be quite likely to result in 1.3million deaths, possibly more.
3/16 That seems a completely intolerable number, so let’s look at option 2.
Option 2 has essentially been the Government’s attempted approach to date. They said they would aim to keep R below 1, whilst opening as much of the economy as possible.
Option 2 has essentially been the Government’s attempted approach to date. They said they would aim to keep R below 1, whilst opening as much of the economy as possible.
4/16 Under option 2, R was never going to fall far below 1 as, if it did the Government’s response would just be to relax more controls.
R =1 means each infected person passes it on to one more person. So the infection just runs and runs, but at a stable rate.
R =1 means each infected person passes it on to one more person. So the infection just runs and runs, but at a stable rate.
5/16 The problem with this plan is that without a vaccine, the infection eventually reaches all the same people as in option1. It just takes longer, so the death toll would still be 1.3million or possibly more unless a vaccine is found.
6/16 Most of us hope that a vaccine can be found, although this is far from certain. Antibodies acquired naturally in fighting the virus appear to be short lived, so it would be unwise to bet the house solely on a vaccine being found.
7/16 But a key question is “How much freedom/normality can we have, whilst still maintaining R=1 or lower”?
Johnson tried to open up large parts of the economy and schools in a “Covid Secure” manner, relying on test, trace & isolate as primary means to control infection spread.
Johnson tried to open up large parts of the economy and schools in a “Covid Secure” manner, relying on test, trace & isolate as primary means to control infection spread.
8/16 But that experiment has failed. Infection is rising fast again. This appears to indicate that unless test, trace and isolate can be made a lot lot more effective, we can’t have much freedom/normality at all whilst still keeping the virus under control.
9/16 And let’s remember that many of the fun aspects of life were still in suspension. Sports venues, theatres, larger weddings etc etc.
So the option 2 equilibrium option doesn’t look great.
So the option 2 equilibrium option doesn’t look great.
10/16 This brings us to the third option. Drive the virus down to zero. Firstly, this is still possible, and could be done quite quickly given resolve. It would require strict quarantine on incoming travellers to preserve the Covid-free status once attained, but this would be...
11/16 ...less disruptive to the nation that the current measures.
It would require a national resolve like a wartime effort to rid us of an enemy. We would “never give in” until the last town was Covid-free.
It would require a national resolve like a wartime effort to rid us of an enemy. We would “never give in” until the last town was Covid-free.
12/16 It would require a tight lockdown in each town / city until that place achieved Covid-free status (no new infections for 10 days).
Once an area achieves Covid-free status, people living in that area can go about life as normal, but only essential travel would be permitted
Once an area achieves Covid-free status, people living in that area can go about life as normal, but only essential travel would be permitted
13/16 ...between Covid-free areas and infected areas to ensure the infection does not spread.
As soon as one new case arises in an area it would be locked down again for 10 days, giving a strong incentive to everyone to remain infection free.
As soon as one new case arises in an area it would be locked down again for 10 days, giving a strong incentive to everyone to remain infection free.
14/16 Will a bit of tweaking these maps the Government now updates daily could be used to indicate the status of each area, and whether locked down or not.
15/16 With this option, there is no reliance on a vaccine that might never arrive, but it should be possible for many people to return to a more normal life quite quickly, and communities have a shared incentive to beat the virus to restore freedom.
16/16 Thanks for reading this. I’m not an expert. I’ve yet to see a coherent explanation of either the options or Johnson’s strategy, so felt compelled to compose this thread. Would welcome any feedback and references to strategic options proposed elsewhere.
