https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🤯" title="Explodierender Kopf" aria-label="Emoji: Explodierender Kopf"> An Unexpected Result - Finishing Skill https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🥅" title="Tornetz" aria-label="Emoji: Tornetz">

Here follows a brief discussion about "finishing skill" https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🏁" title="Karierte Flagge" aria-label="Emoji: Karierte Flagge">, what it means & how it& #39;s used, followed by a short experiment https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔬" title="Mikroskop" aria-label="Emoji: Mikroskop">.

If you think you already know all about it, feel free to skip to the end https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="😅" title="Lächelndes Gesicht mit offenem Mund und Angstschweiß" aria-label="Emoji: Lächelndes Gesicht mit offenem Mund und Angstschweiß">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔚" title=""End" mit nach links zeigendem Pfeil darüber" aria-label="Emoji: "End" mit nach links zeigendem Pfeil darüber">!

Otherwise, continue https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👨‍🏫" title="Man teacher" aria-label="Emoji: Man teacher">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🥝" title="Kiwi fruit" aria-label="Emoji: Kiwi fruit">...

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📊" title="Balkendiagramm" aria-label="Emoji: Balkendiagramm"> Many models combine past xG (expected goals) data with a player& #39;s "finishing skill" https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇫🇮" title="Flagge von Finnland" aria-label="Emoji: Flagge von Finnland">.

In theory, a player& #39;s xG tells you how many goals their shots were "worth", on average. It considers factors up to the shot, e.g. distance, height, angle & DEF/GK positions https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🤓" title="Nerd-Gesicht" aria-label="Emoji: Nerd-Gesicht">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🏟️" title="Stadion" aria-label="Emoji: Stadion">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🥝" title="Kiwi fruit" aria-label="Emoji: Kiwi fruit">.

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="💡" title="Elektrische Glühbirne" aria-label="Emoji: Elektrische Glühbirne"> The basic idea behind "finishing skill" is some players are better at shooting than others.

Therefore such players should get more goals than an average player from the same quality chances https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🤔" title="Denkendes Gesicht" aria-label="Emoji: Denkendes Gesicht">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🥅" title="Tornetz" aria-label="Emoji: Tornetz">.

For example, https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🐐" title="Ziege" aria-label="Emoji: Ziege"> Messi (201G from 165.7xG) vs https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="😬" title="Grimasse schneidendes Gesicht" aria-label="Emoji: Grimasse schneidendes Gesicht"> Benteke (43G from 55.3xG) https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🥝" title="Kiwi fruit" aria-label="Emoji: Kiwi fruit">...

So for modelling purposes, you might take a player& #39;s past number of goals and divide it by their past xG https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="➗" title="Dickes Divisionszeichen" aria-label="Emoji: Dickes Divisionszeichen">. This gives you the number of goals that that player gets per 1xG.

For example, in games on http://understat.com"> http://understat.com , Messi has scored 201G from 165.7xG. This gives https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🥝" title="Kiwi fruit" aria-label="Emoji: Kiwi fruit">...

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔢" title="Eingabesymbol für Ziffern" aria-label="Emoji: Eingabesymbol für Ziffern"> 201 ÷ 165.7 = 1.21 https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔢" title="Eingabesymbol für Ziffern" aria-label="Emoji: Eingabesymbol für Ziffern">

So you& #39;d say Messi& #39;s "finishing skill" (at least historically) is 1.21 goals per 1xG, or +21% https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⏫" title="Nach oben zeigendes doppeltes Dreieck" aria-label="Emoji: Nach oben zeigendes doppeltes Dreieck">.

Then if you expected Messi to get 25xG this season, you could apply his "finishing skill" https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="💅" title="Nagellack" aria-label="Emoji: Nagellack"> to see how many goals he might get:

25 × 1.21 = 30.25 https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⚽" title="Fußball" aria-label="Emoji: Fußball">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🥝" title="Kiwi fruit" aria-label="Emoji: Kiwi fruit">.

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🗣️" title="Silhouette eines sprechenden Kopfes" aria-label="Emoji: Silhouette eines sprechenden Kopfes"> As I said, many models apply this idea. However, @FPLRoosta& #39;s reluctance to follow suit in such an extreme way ( https://twitter.com/FPLRoosta/status/1307302307042910209?s=19)">https://twitter.com/FPLRoosta... inspired me to take a closer look at some of the data https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📉" title="Tabelle mit Abwärtstrend" aria-label="Emoji: Tabelle mit Abwärtstrend">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔍" title="Nach links zeigende Lupe" aria-label="Emoji: Nach links zeigende Lupe">.

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⚠️" title="Warnsignal" aria-label="Emoji: Warnsignal"> Remember this will only be a small test, further research is encouraged! https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🥝" title="Kiwi fruit" aria-label="Emoji: Kiwi fruit">

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🚨" title="Polizeiautos mit drehendem Licht" aria-label="Emoji: Polizeiautos mit drehendem Licht"> The Experiment https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🚨" title="Polizeiautos mit drehendem Licht" aria-label="Emoji: Polizeiautos mit drehendem Licht">

What we want to do in FPL models is predict a player& #39;s season using past data https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📅" title="Kalender" aria-label="Emoji: Kalender">. Hence I& #39;ll look at past seasons & see how predictive earlier data was for each of those seasons https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔮" title="Kristallkugel" aria-label="Emoji: Kristallkugel">.

I& #39;ll compare plain xG to xG with a basic "finishing skill" adjustment https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🛠️" title="Hammer und Schraubenschlüssel" aria-label="Emoji: Hammer und Schraubenschlüssel">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🥝" title="Kiwi fruit" aria-label="Emoji: Kiwi fruit">.

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🚄" title="Hochgeschwindigkeitszug" aria-label="Emoji: Hochgeschwindigkeitszug">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="⚡" title="Hochspannungszeichen" aria-label="Emoji: Hochspannungszeichen"> As I only want a quick litmus test, I& #39;ll restrict to seasons where a player had over 10xG & they had over 25xG in previous seasons (from which to determine "finishing skill") https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🦈" title="Hai" aria-label="Emoji: Hai">.

My source will be the top 5 leagues on http://understat.com"> http://understat.com  (data from 14/15 onwards) https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🍅" title="Tomate" aria-label="Emoji: Tomate">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🥝" title="Kiwi fruit" aria-label="Emoji: Kiwi fruit">.

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🤔" title="Denkendes Gesicht" aria-label="Emoji: Denkendes Gesicht"> For example, Zlatan& #39;s 15/16 season below wouldn& #39;t be counted as he previously only had 18.95xG (less than 25, not enough to determine "finishing skill" https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="💸" title="Geld mit Flügeln" aria-label="Emoji: Geld mit Flügeln">).

Also his 17/18 season wouldn& #39;t count as he only achieved 0.3xG (less than 10) https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📉" title="Tabelle mit Abwärtstrend" aria-label="Emoji: Tabelle mit Abwärtstrend">.

So we count only 16/17 & 19/20 https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📆" title="Abreißkalender" aria-label="Emoji: Abreißkalender">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🥝" title="Kiwi fruit" aria-label="Emoji: Kiwi fruit">.

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🕵️" title="Detective" aria-label="Emoji: Detective"> I identified 165 seasons from a total of 79 players.

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔢" title="Eingabesymbol für Ziffern" aria-label="Emoji: Eingabesymbol für Ziffern"> I calculated their previous "finishing skill" in each case & applied it to that season& #39;s xG to achieve a "theory G".

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="💡" title="Elektrische Glühbirne" aria-label="Emoji: Elektrische Glühbirne"> The idea is to see which of xG and "theory G" is closer to actual goals https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🧐" title="Gesicht mit Monokel" aria-label="Emoji: Gesicht mit Monokel">.

Sample data https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔢" title="Eingabesymbol für Ziffern" aria-label="Emoji: Eingabesymbol für Ziffern">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🥝" title="Kiwi fruit" aria-label="Emoji: Kiwi fruit">:

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🤓" title="Nerd-Gesicht" aria-label="Emoji: Nerd-Gesicht"> Here I& #39;ll use the Pearson correlation coefficient to find the correlation between (Goals) & xG and the correlation between (Goals) & (xG × past "finishing skill").

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔢" title="Eingabesymbol für Ziffern" aria-label="Emoji: Eingabesymbol für Ziffern"> Excel squares this to give the r^2 value, a number between 0 and 1. 0 is no correlation, 1 is perfect https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👌" title="Ok hand" aria-label="Emoji: Ok hand">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📈" title="Tabelle mit Aufwärtstrend" aria-label="Emoji: Tabelle mit Aufwärtstrend">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🥝" title="Kiwi fruit" aria-label="Emoji: Kiwi fruit">.

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🚨" title="Polizeiautos mit drehendem Licht" aria-label="Emoji: Polizeiautos mit drehendem Licht"> Results https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🚨" title="Polizeiautos mit drehendem Licht" aria-label="Emoji: Polizeiautos mit drehendem Licht">

Surprisingly to me, plain xG with no "finishing skill" adjustment has a higher r^2, implying a greater correlation https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🤯" title="Explodierender Kopf" aria-label="Emoji: Explodierender Kopf">!

This small experiment implies that it& #39;s actually more predictive (on average) to ignore "finishing skill" altogether https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="📈" title="Tabelle mit Aufwärtstrend" aria-label="Emoji: Tabelle mit Aufwärtstrend">!

What now https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🤔" title="Denkendes Gesicht" aria-label="Emoji: Denkendes Gesicht">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🥝" title="Kiwi fruit" aria-label="Emoji: Kiwi fruit">?

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔚" title=""End" mit nach links zeigendem Pfeil darüber" aria-label="Emoji: "End" mit nach links zeigendem Pfeil darüber"> Honestly this was so surprising to me that I& #39;m not sure what& #39;s next. I would love ideas for a deeper investigation that could provide more definitive results https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🧐" title="Gesicht mit Monokel" aria-label="Emoji: Gesicht mit Monokel">.

For now I& #39;ll just thank the analytics community & especially @FPLRoosta for putting me onto it https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🙏" title="Folded hands" aria-label="Emoji: Folded hands">!

Kiwi out https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🎤" title="Mikrofon" aria-label="Emoji: Mikrofon">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🥝" title="Kiwi fruit" aria-label="Emoji: Kiwi fruit">.